基于组合赋权-灰云模型的高速公路隧道施工安全韧性评估方法

A Method for Safety Resilience Evaluation of Construction of Freeway Tunnels Based on Combination Weighting and Grey Cloud Model

为了最大程度避免从安全风险到安全隐患、再到安全事故的发展,在事故发生之前做好事前预防控制,研究了以安全隐患为节点的高速公路隧道施工安全韧性评价方法。考虑隧道施工系统自身拥有抵抗、承受、适应风险的能力,提出了安全韧性角度下风险管控、隐患承受和隐患识别评估指标,构建了人员、设备和管理这3个维度的高速公路隧道施工安全韧性评价指标体系,建立了基于组合赋权-灰云模型的高速公路隧道施工安全韧性评估方法。以宁波市某高速公路中某隧道为研究对象,运用该方法对其施工安全韧性等级进行评估。结果表明:该隧道施工过程的安全韧性为较高等级韧性,安全状态良好。然而,隐患识别能力的安全韧性等级为中等级韧性,说明该隧道在施工过程中智能检测各种危险状态的能力欠缺,不能做到快速识别隐患的发生与演变。对比了组合赋权-灰云模型评估结果与传统作业条件的危险性评价法安全风险评估结果,表明灰云模型对安全韧性评估的可靠性。使用基于组合赋权-灰云模型的高速公路隧道施工安全韧性评价方法,不仅可以得到安全韧性等级的综合评估结果,还根据各要素的灰度聚类系数进行影响程度排序,从而追溯到安全韧性薄弱处,精确找出影响高速公路隧道施工安全状态的限制因素。

To avoid the development from safety risk to accident,and to take preventive control before an accident occurs,a safety resilience evaluation method for the construction of freeway tunnel is proposed.Considering that the tunnel construction system itself has the ability to resist,withstand,and adapt to risks,indicators for risk control,hazard tolerance and identification of hidden dangers is put forward under the perspective of safety resilience,and a safety resilience evaluation index system for highway tunnel construction in the three dimensions of personnel,equipment,and management is developed.A gray cloud model with combination weighting is developed to evaluate the safety resilience level of the construction of freeway tunnels,which is applied to a tunnel in a freeway of Ningbo.The results show that the level of safety resilience of the tunnel construction is rated as high and has a good safety state;however,the level of safety resilience of the ability of identifying hidden dangers is low,indicating that the tunnel lacks the ability to intelligently detect various dangerous states during the construction process,and fails to quickly identify the occurrence and evolution of hidden dangers.The safety risk assessment using the Hazard assessment method confirms the results of the combination weighting and grey cloud model,validating the model’s effectiveness and reliability.The safety resilience evaluation method proposed in this paper for the construction of freeway tunnels can not only obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the safety resilience level,but also can sort the influence degree of factors according to the gray clustering coefficient of each factor and then trace back the weak point of safety resilience.Hence,it is easy to find out accurately the constrained factors affecting the construction safety state of freeway tunnels.