全球气候变化下西南喀斯特地区气候与水文系统的综合响应研究——以贵州为例

Comprehensive Response Study of Climate and Hydrological System in Southwest Karst Region Under Global Climate Change—A Case Study of Guizhou Province

以贵州为例,分析了1978—2021年贵州的年平均温度、降水、湿度、日照时数、地表水资源、地下水资源、河流输沙量等要素与气候变化的响应,并构建气候变化综合评价指数进行综合响应评价。结果表明:全球气候变暖与贵州气温变化相关性显著,而与年平均相对湿度、地表水资源量、地下水资源量和河流输沙量变化相关性比较微弱;随着全球气候变暖,贵州气温呈波动式的增加趋势,降水量也呈增加趋势,而贵州全省年日照时数、相对湿度、地表水资源量、地下水资源量和河流输沙量呈减少态势;综合响应总体呈增加趋势;贵州气候与水文系统中各要素总体变化幅度相对较小;在研究时段,气温、降水量、相对湿度、河流输沙量均为负偏态分布,表明平均量偏多的年份比偏少的年份出现的概率大;而地表水资源量、地下水资源量、日照时数为正偏态分布,表明平均量偏多的年份比偏少的年份出现的概率小。

Taking Guizhou as an example,this study analyzed the response of factors such as annual average temperature,precipitation,humidity,sunshine duration,surface water resources,groundwater resources and river sediment transport to climate change from 1978 to 2021,and constructed a comprehensive climate change evaluation index for comprehensive response evaluation.The results showed that there was a significant correlation between global climate warming and temperature changes in Guizhou,while the correlation with changes in annual average relative humidity,surface water resources,groundwater resources and river sediment transport was relatively weak.With global warming,the temperature in Guizhou showed a fluctuating increasing trend,and precipitation also showed an increasing trend.However,the annual sunshine hours,relative humidity,surface water resources,groundwater resources and river sediment transport in Guizhou Province showed a decreasing trend.The overall response showed an increasing trend.The overall variation amplitude of various elements in the climate and hydrological system of Guizhou was relatively small.During the research period,temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and river sediment transport were all negatively skewed,indicating that years with higher than average rainfall had a greater chance of occurrence than years with lower than average rainfall;the distribution of surface water resources,groundwater resources and sunshine duration was positively skewed,indicating that years with more than average water resources had fewer opportunities to appear than years with less than average water resources.