从南海到“印太”:美日菲三边合作机制化及威慑效用

From South China Sea to Indo-Pacific:Institutionalization of Trilateral Cooperation between the U.S.,Japan and the Philippines and Its Deterrent Effect

在美国联合盟友不断推进“印太战略”和“一体化威慑”以服务其大国战略竞争议程的过程中,一系列“三边”或“四边”安全合作机制的发展及其构成的“小多边主义”军事威慑影响力日增。作为新的战略前沿,美国联合日菲两国,共同推进三边合作机制化,试图相对稳定和长久地威慑中国并“塑造中国的周边环境”。具体而言,随着美日菲三边合作走向机制化,其不再局限于在南海深化对中国的“强加成本威慑”和“灰色地带威慑”,而是逐步强化以中国台湾岛为中心的“第一岛链”并意图通过联合澳大利亚组成“美日菲澳”四方机制等部署与其他“岛链”相链接,提升对华“拒止性威慑”和“韧性威慑”。同时,通过军事安全与经济安全的复合架构,在更广泛的印太地区加强威慑力量、使用力量的决心和威慑信息的“网络化”传递。在此过程中,其威慑效用呈现出从南海向印太地区的扩散趋势。然而,其在威慑力量、使用力量的决心和威慑信息的传递等三个方面也将受到一系列因素的制约。即便如此,此种旨在严密封锁中国“向海图强”的基于威慑的战略协调,值得中国高度警惕。

In the ongoing implementation of the U.S.government's Indo-Pacific Strategy and integrated deterrence,there is a growing focus on the development of trilateral or quadrilateral security mechanisms led by the U.S.,as well as the path of mini-lateral deterrence.The U.S.,along with Japan and the Philippines,are working to formalize trilateral cooperation as its new strategic frontier to deter China and shape its surrounding environment through established principles,norms,rules,and decision-making procedures in a stable and longterm manner.Specifically,the U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral mechanism aims not only to deepen the deterrence by direct and collective cost imposition and the grey zone deterrence against China in the South China Sea,but also to strengthen the deterrence by denial and resilience against China centered on Taiwan Island in the first island chain,and to enhance the determination,use,and networked transmission of deterrence information in the Indo-Pacific region through a composite architecture of military security and economic security.In this process,the deterrence effect has spread from the South China Sea to the Indo-Pacific region.However,its deterrence force,the determination to use force and the transmission of deterrence information will also be restricted by a series of factors.