21世纪以来澳大利亚的南海政策和南太地区战略:威胁感知、利益排序与角色定位

Australia's South China Sea Policy and South Pacific Strategy in the 21st Century:Threat Perception,Interest Priority,and Role Positioning

南海和南太地区是澳大利亚区域构想的重要部分,在美国对华战略竞争的背景下成为中美澳三国利益交汇的关键区域。21世纪以来,澳大利亚在南海和南太地区的政策转向具有时间与程度上的差异,现有研究缺乏对其地区安全策略的比较分析和对决策者认知机制的探索。澳大利亚地区战略遵循内外互动的认知逻辑:在外部威胁感知强烈时选择“对华竞争者”角色,在联盟风险感知显著时更可能对华合作;当环境不确定性高、双重威胁感知平衡时,决策者倾向于在优先利益范围内积极配合盟友,而在非优先事项中扮演“国际良好公民”。随着南海问题成为大国争议焦点,澳大利亚将该区域纳入“印太战略弧”,其南海政策从谨慎旁观走向高调介入和明确制衡。南太地区被澳大利亚视为传统“势力范围”,中美战略视域的扩展推动澳大利亚战略由地区主义战略转向借力大国,在美国着力阻遏中国影响力时进一步转向“联美制华”。

The South China Sea and South Pacific regions are crucial components of Australia's regional vision,intersecting the interests of the U.S.,China,and Australia within the context of great power strategic competition.Since the 21st century,Australia's policies in these areas have varied in both time and degree.Existing research lacks comparative analyses of its regional security strategies and understanding of decision-makers'cognitive mechanisms.Australia's regional strategy follows an interactive cognitive logic:when there is a strong perception of external threats,it is highly likely to adopt the role of“competitor to China.”Conversely,when the perception of alliance risks is significant,cooperation with China becomes more probable.In situations where environmental uncertainty is high and dual threat perceptions are relatively balanced,decision-makers tend to prioritize maintaining alliance influence within their scope of interests while assuming the role of“international good citizen”in non-priority matters.As the South China Sea issue has become a focal point for great power disputes,Australia has included this region in its“Indo-Pacific Strategic Arc”,and its South China Sea policy has moved from cautious observation to high-profile intervention and clear checks and balances.The South Pacific region is considered by Australia as its traditional“sphere of influence”.The expansion of both U.S.and Chinese strategic perspectives has led to a shift in Australian strategy from regionalism towards leveraging major powers,subsequently evolved into an“alliance with the U.S.to contain China”as the U.S.efforts focused on impeding Chinese influence.