全球视域下数字经济发展的碳减排效应及其作用机制

Carbon emission reduction effects and mechanisms of digital economy development from a global perspective

在“双碳”目标引领经济高质量发展与数字经济时代全面到来的时代背景下,立足全球视野,整合国际经验,凝练通过数字经济发展实现“双碳”目标的路径,检验并提升中国数字经济的碳减排效力,成为学理所需和政策所求。运用熵值法测度全球88个经济体2003—2021年的数字经济发展水平,通过双向固定效应、中介效应、调节效应模型分析样本国家数字经济的碳减排效应与作用机制。研究发现:①全球数字经济发展水平增速显著,中国数字经济发展水平的相对增长率远超世界平均水平。②数字经济与人均碳排放量呈现显著的先增后减的倒“U”型关系,当下中国数字经济发展水平仍处于拐点左侧。③不同国家的数字经济发展水平将导致数字经济的碳减排效应差异。高收入国家与非资源型国家更易把握数字经济发展机遇实现碳减排。④数字经济通过调整贸易开放水平、促进金融发展、提升政府效率3条路径实现碳减排。⑤技术创新与能源结构可显著调节数字经济的碳减排效力,二者均能够带来曲线拐点右移并使之更加平缓。研究建议,从数字基础设施技术改进、社会数字素养培育、科技创新与路径依赖规避、传递机制强化、技术创新与能源结构的调节效应增强等角度,进一步发挥数字经济的碳减排效力。该研究丰富了“经济增长—绿色发展”的经典理论在数字时代的学理内涵。

In the context of China's‘dual carbon’goals guiding high-quality economic development and the advent of the era of the digital economy,it is necessary to examine and enhance the carbon reduction efficiency of China's digital economy from a global perspective.Integrating international experience and refining the paths to achieve the'dual carbon'goals through the development of the digital economy is essential for both academic theory and policy demands.Using the entropy method to measure the level of digital economy development in 88 global economies from 2003 to 2021,this study analyzed the carbon emission reduction effects and mechanisms of the digital economy in these sample countries through bidirectional fixed effects,mediation effects,and moderation effects models.The study found that:①The global digital economy development level was increasing significantly,and the relative growth rate of China's digital economy development far exceeded the world average.②There was a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and per capita carbon emissions,with China's current digital economy development level still on the left side of the inflection point.③Different levels of digital economy development in various countries led to differences in the carbon reduction effects of the digital economy.High-income countries and non-resource-based countries were more likely to leverage digital economy development to achieve carbon reduction.④The digital economy reduced carbon emissions through three paths:adjusting trade openness levels,promoting financial development,and improving government efficiency.⑤Technological innovation and energy structure could significantly modulate the carbon reduction efficiency of the digital economy,both of which could shift the curve's inflection point to the right and make it smoother.This study suggests several strategies to enhance the carbon reduction efficiency of the digital economy.These include improving digital infrastructure technology,cultivating social digital literacy,fostering technological innovation while avoiding path dependence,strengthening transmission mechanisms,and enhancing the moderation effects of technological innovation and energy structure.The study enriches the theoretical implications of the classic theory of'economic growth–green development'in the digital age.