农业发展影响农民减贫增收的作用机制——基于收入结构的实证分解与检验

Mechanisms of agricultural development affecting farmers'poverty alleviation and income increase:empirical decomposition and test based on income structure

在工业化、城镇化的进程中,中国农业发展是否影响、如何影响农民减贫增收的问题,在理论和实证上仍存在较多分歧。基于此,该研究采用1994—2021年中国省级面板数据,并与2010—2020年CFPS微观数据相匹配,通过构建两部门理论模型,分析农业发展给农民带来的增收效应与减贫效应,进一步检验农业发展影响农民减贫增收的具体机制及异质性。研究发现:①农业发展不仅直接影响农民务农收入与非农收入,还通过农业生产效应、生活成本效应和非农就业效应的中介传导途径作用于务农收入与非农收入,降低了农村居民贫困发生率和贫困深度,但对贫困强度影响不显著。②总体上,农业发展提升务农收入的作用占比为54.94%,提升非农收入的作用占比为45.06%。③农民减贫成效的23.36%源自农业发展提升务农收入所致,76.64%源自农业发展溢出作用实现的非农收入提升;但在粮食主产区内,农业发展通过提升务农收入对农民减贫成效的贡献超过40%。该研究为中国实现脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有序衔接提供了理论和实证支撑。

China's targeted poverty alleviation strategy has achieved remarkable success.However,there remain considerable theoretical and empirical disagreements on whether and how agricultural development in China affects farmers'poverty alleviation and income increase.This study constructed a two-sector theoretical model to analyze the specific mechanisms through which agricultural development affects farmers'poverty alleviation and income increase in the process of industrialization and urbanization.Based on this,the study used provincial panel data from 1994 to 2021 in China,matched with CFPS microdata from 2010 to 2020.The focus was on analyzing the income increase and poverty alleviation effects brought by agricultural development to farmers,while further testing the specific mechanisms and heterogeneity of the impact of agricultural development on farmers'poverty alleviation and income increase.The results indicated that:①Agricultural development not only directly affected farmers'agricultural and non-agricultural income but also acted on them through the mediating transmission channels,including agricultural production effects,cost of living effects,and non-agricultural employment effects.Additionally,agricultural development contributed to reducing the incidence and depth of poverty among rural residents,although it had no significant impact on poverty intensity.②Overall,agricultural development accounted for 54.94%of the increase in agricultural income and 45.06%of the increase in non-agricultural income.③23.36%of the poverty alleviation and income increase effects of agricultural development came from the increase in agricultural income through agricultural development,while 76.64%stemmed from the spillover effect of agricultural development resulting in an increase in non-agricultural income.In major grain-producing areas,however,agricultural development contributed over 40%to farmers'poverty alleviation and income increase through enhancements in agricultural income.This article provides theoretical and empirical support for the orderly connection between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization in China.