碳中和目标下全球多晶硅贸易网络结构的动态演进及驱动力研究

Study on the global polysilicon trade networks'dynamic evolution and its driving forces under the global carbon neutrality target

全球碳中和目标下光伏产业的快速发展引起全球多晶硅贸易网络结构的深刻变化。运用复杂网络理论对全球多晶硅贸易网络结构的动态演进及其驱动力进行探究。结果表明:(1)网络总体平均路径距离短,聚类系数高,呈“小世界”特征。节点国的出、入度核密度呈现“单峰右偏”的长尾特征,“富人俱乐部”凸显。(2)网络“核心-边缘”结构稳定,核心国占比增加,边缘国占比减少,中国是主要核心国之一。(3)QAP回归结果显示,国家间的光伏装机容量差异、CO_(2)排放量差异和环境绩效差异对全球多晶硅贸易网络的正效应显著。中国应以全球多晶硅贸易网络中心向中国转移为契机,发挥地理临近优势,加强区域合作及贸易联系,注入更多“中国因素”,积极推动多晶硅及光伏产业链的国际合作和融合发展。

The structure of the worldwide trade network for polysilicon has undergone signifi-cant modifications as a result of the PV industry's explosive growth under the global carbon neu-trality target.Based on the complex network theory,this research investigates the dynamics of the global polysilicon trade network and its driving factors.The main conclusions are as fol-lows.Firstly,the network's overall average path distance is tiny and the clustering coefficient is high,the traits of a"small world"are demonstrated;the"rich club"is evident because the nodal countries'in and out degrees kernel density is single-peaked to the right and follows a long-tail feature;Secondly,China is one of the key core countries,and the network's Core-Periphery structure is constant,with a rising share of core countries and a declining share of periphery countries;Thirdly,the QAP regression results demonstrate that the combined effects of economic size,trade scale,installed PV capacity,CO_(2)emissions,and environmental performance have a significant impact on the dynamic evolution of polysilicon trade networks.Differences in eco-nomic size and trade scale across nations have a large limiting effect,but differences in PV instal-lation,CO_(2) emissions,and environmental performance have a considerable stimulating effect.China should seize the chance to become the hub of its global trade network,capitalize on geo-graphic closeness to deepen trade relations,inject more"China factors"and actively promote global collaboration and chain integration in the PV industry.