从“观察者”到“参与者”:乌克兰地缘政治角色的转换与困境研究

From"observer"to"participant":Research on the transformation and dilemma of Ukraine's geopolitical roles

全球战略博弈背景下,地缘政治因素是各国制定安全和对外政策的一项重要依据。它既为发达资本主义国家争夺地缘政治红利提供借口,也迫使发展中国家高度重视和防范地缘政治危机所带来的风险。为探讨大国地缘政治博弈背景下,被争夺国家扮演何种角色及“角色转换”困境等问题,选取频发地缘政治危机的乌克兰为研究案例,借鉴“角色理论”的分析框架,尝试将传统地缘政治理论与“角色理论”相融合,基于“观察者”与“参与者”角色转换的视角,采用“国内政治-国际政治”的比较分析方法,对比国际社会对乌克兰地缘政治角色的认知与评价,厘清乌克兰地缘政治角色转换的时空过程,阐释乌克兰地缘政治角色转换的效应,以期为发展中国家的地缘政治决策提供新的理论认知和实践剖析。

In the context of the global strategic game,geopolitical factors are an important ba-sis for countries to formulate security and foreign policies.It not only provides an excuse for capitalist countries to compete for geopolitical dividends,but also forces developing countries to pay high attention to and guard against risks brought by geopolitical crises.In order to explore the role of the contested countries and the dilemma of"role transformation"in the geopolitical game between great powers,we select Ukraine,which has frequent geopolitical crises,as a case study,draws on the analytical framework of"role theory",and attempts to integrate traditional geopolitical theory with"role theory".Based on the perspective of"observer"and"participant"role transformation,we adopt the comparative analysis method of"domestic politics and international politics"to compare the international community's cognition and evaluation of Ukraine's geopolitical role,clarify the time-space process of Ukraine's geopolitical role transformation,and explain the effect of Ukraine's geopolitical role transformation,to provide new theoretical cognition and practical analysis for the geopolitical decision-making of developing countries.