我国计划生育政策调整能否改变生育意愿?

Will the Adjustment of Our Family Planning Policy Change People’s Fertility Intention?

关于计划生育政策对生育意愿的影响,以往研究往往从主观猜测的角度进行阐述。文章基于量化研究推进了人口学领域中这一主题研究。将理想子女数作为衡量生育意愿的指标,采用均值分析、面板线性双重差分模型,基于样本所属生育政策对比分析了全面二孩政策出台前后同一人群的生育意愿。双重差分模型结果显示,受全面二孩政策调整影响,原属一孩半政策的女性生育意愿平均提高了0.164个孩子。这与一孩半政策女性对子女较多的需求效应有关,又与全面二孩政策相配套的政策措施降低了生育经济成本有关。全面二孩政策并没有提高其他人群的生育意愿。据此,建议重点支持原属于一孩半政策妇女的生育,促其将生育意愿转换成生育现实。

Regarding the impact of family planning policies on fertility intentions,previous studies have tended to address it from the perspective of subjective speculation.This paper advances the research on this topic in the field of demography based on quantitative studies.In this paper,the ideal number of children is used as an indicator of fertility intentions,and the mean analysis and panel linear difference-in-difference model are used to compare and analyze the fertility intentions of the same population before and after the introduction of the comprehensive two-child policy based on the fertility policy to which the sample belongs.The results of the double difference model show that,affected by the adjustment of the comprehensive two-child policy,the fertility intention of women who originally belonged to the one-and-a-half-child policy increased by 0.164 children on average.This is related to the effect of the one-and-a-half-child policy women’s demand for more children,and to the fact that the policy measures accompanying the comprehensive two-child policy have lowered the economic cost of childbearing.The comprehensive two-child policy has not increased the fertility intentions of the rest of the population.Accordingly,it is recommended to focus on supporting the fertility of women who were originally part of the one-and-a-halfchild policy,so as to facilitate the conversion of their fertility intentions into fertility realities.