西北地区数字经济与经济高质量发展协同效应与动态演进预测

A Prediction of Synergistic Effect and Dynamic Evolution of Digital Economy and High-quality Economic Development in Northwest China

基于2013~2022年西北五省面板数据构建数字经济与经济高质量发展双系统指标体系,对二者的耦合协调度进行测度,通过核密度估计方法以及Markov链模型完成两者的协同效应检验及动态演进预测。研究发现,2013~2022年西北地区数字经济与经济高质量发展之间联系密切,但二者协同效应较低,大多处于中度或轻度失调状态且地区之间发展不平衡,各省份耦合协调度水平不稳定,当考虑空间因素后,省份自身的耦合协调水平会受到其他耦合协调水平的影响。提出因地制宜推进产业数字化、数字产业化,加强对数字和信息科技的理解和普及,注重经济发展的系统性和可持续性等建议,以期助力西北地区经济发展。

A dual-system index system of digital economy and high-quality economic development was constructed based on the panel data of five provinces in Northwestern China from 2013 to 2022,to measure the coupling coordination degree.Then the synergistic effect test and dynamic evolution prediction were completed by kernel density estimation method and spatial Markov chain model.It is found that during 2013-2022 digital economy and high-quality economic development in Northwestern China are closely related,but with a low synergy effect,a moderate or mild imbalance state and unbalanced development between regions,indicating the unstable coupling coordination degree level of each province.When spatial factors are considered,the coupling coordination level of each province can be affected by other coupling coordination levels.This study comes up with measures and strategies adjusted to the regional conditions,i.e.,promoting digitalized industries and industrialized digital economy,improving the public understanding of the digital information technology and focusing on the systematic and sustainable development,etc.,so as to accelerate the high-quality economic growth in Northwestern China.