气候变化与物候期的关系及农户感知研究——以三江平原为例

The Relationship Between Climate Change and Phenological Periods and Perception of Farmers:A Case Study of Sanjiang Plain

通过研究物候期对气候变化的响应,评估农户对气候变化认知水平,实施气象为农服务提质增效行动,基于三江平原佳木斯市1993—2022年的物候期、1961—2022年气温和降水量、农户气候变化感知数据,利用数理统计方法,分析气候变化与物候期关系及农户对气候变化的感知。近30 a三江平原春季物候期变化均呈提前趋势,秋季物候期变化均呈延后趋势,蒲公英物候期趋势变化最为显著,蒲公英萌芽日期提前,变化速率为5.5 d/10 a,黄枯日期延后,变化速率为10.6 d/10 a;春秋季温度、降水和春秋季物候期之间的相关系数,共有8对极显著相关和6对显著相关,其中正相关有7对,负相关有7对,春季物候期的变化主要是受温度影响,秋季物候期变化则是降水量影响;农户对温度变化感知结果与实测数据基本一致,准确率达到80%以上,农户感知到的降水变化趋势与气象实测数据存在差异,准确率达到58.0%,自然现象物候期感知结果准确性低于温度和降水变化感知结果。三江平原物候期随着温度升高及降水增加,出现日期提前,结束日期延后,物候期呈延长趋势,农户对农业生产相关的气候变化感知更为敏感,也相对准确。研究结果为农业生产制定有效的气候变化适应政策提供科学依据与借鉴。

To assess the farmers’cognition on climate change and implement the action of improving the quality and efficiency of meteorological services for farmers,the response of phenological period to climate change was studied.Based on the phenological period data of Jiamusi City from 1993 to 2022,temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2022 and climate change perception data of farmers,we analyzed the relationship between climate change and phenological period and the farmers'perception of climate change with the mathematical statistics methods.In recent 30 a,the changes in the spring phenological period in the Sanjiang Plain have all shown an early trend,while the changes in the autumn phenological period have all shown a delayed trend.The trend of the dandelion phenological period shows the most significant changes,with the germination date of dandelion advancing at a rate of 5.5 d/10 a and the withering date delaying at a rate of 10.6 d/10 a;there are 8 pairs of extremely significant correlations and 6 pairs of significant correlations between temperature,precipitation,and phenological periods in spring and autumn,with 7 pairs of positive correlations and 7 pairs of negative correlations.The changes in the spring phenology are mainly influenced by temperature,while the changes in the autumn phenology are influenced by precipitation;the farmer’s perception results of temperature changes were basically consistent with the measured data,accuracy rate reached above 80%,and there were differences between the precipitation change trend perceived by farmers and the measured meteorological data,and the accuracy rate was 58.0%.The accuracy of the natural phenomenon phenological perception results was lower than the perception results of temperature and precipitation changes.With the increase of temperature and precipitation,the occurrence date of the phenology period is advanced and the end date is delayed,the phenology period shows an extended trend.Farmers have a more sensitive and relatively accurate perception of climate change related to agricultural production.The research results provide scientific basis and reference for formulating effective climate change adaptation policies for agricultural production.