数字经济与城市产业结构升级——基于就业供给和消费需求双角度分析

Digital Economy and Urban Industrial Structure Upgrading:Analysis Based on the Dual Perspectives of Employment Supply and Consumption Demand

利用2015—2018年中国239个地级市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型分析数字经济发展对产业结构升级的影响。研究发现:(1)数字经济发展显著促进了产业结构高级化,但未显著促进产业结构合理化;(2)数字经济的发展有助于地区就业结构优化升级,但对消费升级产生了抑制作用;(3)一方面,数字经济通过就业结构升级促进了产业结构高级化,但是数字经济引起的消费降级在一定程度上掩饰了数字经济对产业结构高级化的直接影响;另一方面,数字经济引起的就业结构升级抑制了产业结构合理化水平的提高,而消费降级却促进了产业结构合理化水平的提升;(4)异质性分析结果显示,在产业结构高级化层面,数字经济对中部地区、西部地区、数字化三线以外城市具有显著的促进作用,但对一线和二线城市存在显著阻碍作用;在产业结构合理化层面,数字经济对东部地区城市有显著积极影响,而对西部地区城市有显著消极影响。

Using panel data from 239 prefecture-level cities in China from 2015 to 2018,this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to analyze the impact of digital economic development on the upgrading of the in-dustrial structure.The research findings are as follows:(1)The development of the digital economy significant-ly promotes the advancement of industrial structure but does not significantly promote its rationalization.(2)Digital economic development contributes to optimizing and upgrading regional employment structures but inhib-its consumer upgrading.(3)On one hand,the digital economy promotes the advancement of industrial structure through the upgrading of employment structure,but the consumption downgrading caused by the digital economy to some extent masks the direct impact of the digital economy on the advancement of the industrial structure;on the other hand,the upgrading of employment structure caused by digital economy inhibits the improvement of the rationalization level of industrial structure,while the downgrading of consumption promotes the improvement of the rationalization level of industrial structure.(4)The heterogeneous analysis results show that,at the level of advanced industrial structure,the digital economy significantly promotes the development of the central and western regions as well as cities beyond the third-tier digital areas.However,it has a significant hindering effect on first-tier and second-tier cities.At the level of industrial structure rationalization,the digital economy has a significantly positive impact on cities in the eastern region but a significantly negative impact on cities in the western region.