基于组合赋权二维云模型的公路工程施工安全风险量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of Highway Engineering Construction Safety Risk Based on Combinatorial Weighted Two-Dimensional Cloud Model

为了有效解决公路工程施工安全风险评估中的模糊性和随机性问题,构建了一种基于组合赋权二维云模型的安全风险评估模型,旨在对风险进行量化分析.从事故风险、公共卫生风险、社会安全风险和自然灾害风险四个方面,构建了18项指标的公路工程施工安全风险评价指标体系.运用OTM-IAHP确定主观权重,熵权法确定客观权重,利用最小鉴别信息原理确定组合权重.结合二维云模型,通过可能性和严重度的综合风险云来直观反映风险水平,利用贴近度精确划分风险等级,为工程管理者提供明确的参考依据.以HB工程为例,验证了该模型的可靠性,结果表明,HB工程属于较低风险等级,识别出交通事故、坍塌事故和触电事故为高风险,并符合实际情况.

In order to effectively solve the problems of fuzziness and randomness in highway construction safety risk assessment,a safety risk assessment model based on combinational weighted two-dimensional cloud model is constructed to quantitatively analyze the risks.From the four aspects of accident risk,public health risk,social safety risk and natural disaster risk,the highway engineering construction safety risk evaluation index system with 18 indexes is constructed.OTM-IAHP is used to determine the subjective weight,entropy weight method to determine the objective weight,and minimum information discrimination method to determine the combined weight.Combined with the two-dimensional cloud model,the risk level is directly reflected through the comprehensive risk cloud of possibility and severity,and the risk level is accurately classified by the proximity degree,which provides a clear reference for project managers.Taking HB project as an example,the reliability of the model is verified,which provides an effective analysis method for the quantitative analysis of highway construction safety risk.The verification results show that HB project belongs to a low risk level,and traffic accidents,collapse accidents and electric shock accidents are identified as high risks,which is consistent with the actual situation.