21世纪新疆区域气候暖湿化趋势预估分析

Future Changes of Regional Climate Warming and Wetting Trend in Xinjiang in 21th Century

新疆未来暖湿化的预估分析可为区域气候变化减缓和适应提供重要的科学基础。国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)全球气候模式在3种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下的结果显示,新疆地区未来2021—2100年总体呈气温升高、降水增加的“暖湿化”趋势,但这种变化的具体数值和空间分布存在一定差异。其中SSP2-4.5情景下,相对于1995—2014年,预估2021—2040年新疆地区年平均气温将升高1.2℃左右,年平均降水将增加6.8%。对极端事件的预估结果表明:新疆地区未来暖事件将增加,冷事件将减少;极端强降水事件将增多,且高排放情景下的增加更为显著。对新疆气候暖湿化趋势的预估分析,有助于对新疆地区灾害风险时空变化格局的认识,对农业方面的风险防范也有重要的指示作用。

The projected future warming and wetting trend in Xinjiang provides critical insights for regional climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.Results obtained from global models participating in CMIP6(the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)under three shared socio-economic pathways(SSPs)indicate the emergence of a"warming and humidification"trend in Xinjiang from 2021 to 2100.This trend is characterized by a general increase in temperature and precipitation levels.Specifically,under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,Xinjiang is projected to experience an approximate increase of 1.2℃in annual mean temperature and a 6.8%rise in precipitation during the period of 2021 to 2040,relative to the baseline period of 1995 to 2014.Analysis of climate extremes suggests an increase in warm events,a decrease in cold events,and a heightened frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events,particularly under high-emission scenarios.This analysis aids in comprehending the spatial and temporal variations of disaster risks in Xinjiang and holds significant implications for future agricultural risk mitigation efforts.