基于系统动力学模型的综合货运枢纽绿色转型机理及实施路径研究

Research on Mechanism and Path of Green Transition of IntegratedFreight Hubs Based on System Dynamics Model

为助力加快实现交通运输行业绿色转型,以综合货运枢纽为着眼点,探索其绿色转型和高质量发展的实施方案。首先,识别出政策、技术创新、管理效率等3个关键因素,揭示综合货运枢纽绿色转型的动态支撑机理。然后,基于对各因素的分析,将环保政策松紧系数、科技投入系数、污染物排放系数作为变量,构建包含枢纽物流供应子系统、枢纽物流需求子系统、节能减排子系统的系统动力学模型。再以四川省某综合货运枢纽为例进行模拟,验证模型的有效性和实用性。最后,从政策标准、技术组合和管理效率等3个方面提出绿色转型路径。研究结果显示:(1)表征政策因素的环保政策松紧系数对节能减排有显著正面影响,但同时限制了枢纽总产值的提升,需关注政策出台时机和松紧度;(2)表征科技研发投入的科技投入系数对节能减排有显著正面影响,既减少碳排放,又不影响枢纽总产值提升,且存在后发优势;(3)表征绿色技术设备投入效果的污染物排放系数对节能减排有显著正面影响,但提示资金投入与减排效果并不是简单的线性关系,需重点关注绿色技术设备的组合优化,做好技术与业务流程的融合;(4)表征管理效率的排放治理投资系数呈现先增后减的趋势,说明需在枢纽结构、招商、人力、资金等方面设定合理区间以确保环保投入产出效果。通过动态模拟综合货运枢纽绿色转型机理,为地方政府因地制宜出台相关政策,以及为货运枢纽运营企业采取科学有效的技术手段和管理措施提供了理论依据。

To help accelerate the green transition of the transportation industry,focusing on integrated freight hubs,the paper explored the implementation plans for the hubs′green transition and high-quality development.Firstly,the paper identified three key factors including policy,technological innovation,and management efficiency,and reveal the dynamic support mechanism for the green transition of integrated freight hubs.Next,based on the analysis of various factors,a system dynamics model was constructed,which included the hub logistics supply subsystem,hub logistics demand subsystem,and energy conservation and emission reduction subsystem,with environmental policy tightness coefficient,science and technology investment coefficient,as well as pollutant emission coefficient as variables.Then,taking a integrated freight hub in Sichuan Province as an example,an empirical simulation was conducted to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the model.Finally,a green transition path was proposed from three aspects:policy standards,technology combination,and management efficiency.The research results show that:(1)The environmental policy tightness coefficient,which represents the policy environment,has a significant positive impact on energy conservation and emission reduction,but at the same time limits the improvement of the total output of the hub,so attention should be paid to the timing and tightness of policy issuance;(2)The technology investment coefficient,which represents the research and development input,has a significant positive impact on energy conservation and emission reduction,reducing carbon emissions without affecting the improvement of the total output of the hub,and has a late-mover advantage;(3)The pollutant emission coefficient,which represents the effect of investment in green technology equipment,has a significant positive impact on energy conservation and emission reduction,but indicates that the relationship between investment and emission reduction is not a simple linear relationship,so it is important to pay special attention to the optimization of the combination of green technologies and equipments,and realize better the integration between technology and business processes;(4)The emission treatment investment coefficient,which represents management efficiency,shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,indicating that it is necessary to set reasonable ranges in terms of hub structure,investment attraction,human resources,and funding to ensure the effect of environmental protection investment and output.Through the dynamic simulation of the green transition mechanism of integrated freight hubs,the research provides theoretical support for local governments to formulate relevant policies to adapt to local conditions,and for operation enterprises of freight hubs to adopt scientifically effective technological means and management measures.