市场结构与补贴变化如何造成中国风电行业过度投资?

How do Market Structure and Subsidy Changes Cause Overinvestment in China’s Wind Power Industry?

近年来,中国大力发展可再生能源,然而伴随着风电装机容量的快速发展,中国的风电产业也产生了“抢装”“弃风限电”等问题。主要关注中国的风力发电行业,通过理论模型与实证模型,分析在中国现行的电力调度体制下,风力发电市场的过度投资问题。论证了风电上网电价下调前后,市场总装机容量的动态变化过程,并得出结论:风电开发商竞争激烈的地区更容易产生过度投资的问题。

In recent years,China has made great efforts to develop renewable energy.However,with the rapid development of installed wind power capacity,China’s wind power industry has also produced problems such as"rushing to install"and"Curtailment of wind power".Focusing on China’s wind power industry,this paper analyzes the problem of overinvestment in China’s wind power market under the current power dispatching system through theoretical and empirical models.The dynamic change process of the total installed capacity of the market before and after the reduction of the feed-in tariff of wind power is demonstrated,and the conclusion is drawn that the area where the competition of wind power developers is fierce is more likely to lead to the problem of overinvestment.