养老金自动调整机制:理论逻辑、国际经验与政策选择

Automatic Adjustment Mechanism of Basic Pension:Theoretical Logic,International Experience and Policy Options

目前我国正处于人口转变的关键时期,一方面体现在人口数量上,我国已经连续两年出现人口负增长;另一方面体现在人口结构上,超低的人口总和生育率加剧了人口少子化和老龄化。人口加速老龄化叠加退休潮,直接冲击我国基本养老金的可持续性。养老金自动调整机制是应对这类冲击的最佳措施之一。本文通过理论机制分析,借鉴德国公共养老金自动调整机制的“可持续因子”、日本的“宏观经济指数”和芬兰的“工资物价因子”的经验,提出了建立我国基本养老金自动调整机制的政策选择,包括建立基本养老金自动调整机制的基本原则、确定初始基础养老金的政策选择(完善现行基础养老金待遇计发公式、引入养老金积分制以强化激励机制)、建立基本养老金自动调整公式以确定基本养老金增长率的政策选择(引入宏观经济指数、引入可持续因子),以供相关决策部门参考。

China is in a critical period of demographic transition.On the one hand,in terms of population size,China has experienced the negative population growth for two consecutive years.On the other hand,in terms of population structure,the ultra-low total fertility rate has exacerbated the low-fertility and population aging.The rapid population aging attached with the new wave of retirement-tide directly affects the sustainability of China's basic pension.Automatic Adjustment Mechanism(AAM)is the best measure to deal with such shocks.Drawing on the AAM Sustainability Factor experience of the German's public pension,the Macro Indexing experience of the Japan's and the Wage Price Factor experience of the Finland's,this paper puts forward the policy options of establishing AAM in China,including the AAM principles,the policy choices for determining the initial basic pension benefits(i.e.the improved formula for the calculation of basic pension benefits,the introduction of pension points system strengthening incentive mechanism)and the policy choices for the establishment of AAM to determine the growth rate of basic pension benefits(i.e.the introduction of Macro Indexing,the introduction of Sustainability Factor),for the reference of relevant decision-making departments.