淮河流域中上游碳储量时空变化特征及未来多情景模拟预测

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Changes in Carbon Stocks in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Huaihe River Basin and Future Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction

淮河流域地处中国南北气候过渡带,其碳储量的变化对预测淮河流域未来的生态保护、减缓气候变化以及维持可持续发展具有重要意义.现以淮河流域中上游(蚌埠站以上)为研究区,基于1980~2020年的土地利用数据,运用PLUS模型模拟预测研究区在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5以及土地利用现状延续情景下2030~2100年的土地利用类型,并利用InVEST模型中的Carbon模块模拟预测1980~2020年的碳储量以及各个情景下2030~2100年的碳储量,对淮河流域中上游的碳储量时空变化比较分析.结果表明:①1980~2020年,淮河流域中上游的耕地、草地面积减少,林地、水域、建设用地和未利用地增加.1980~2020年耕地面积持续减少,40 a共减少了4699 km^(2);建设用地持续增加,40 a共增加了4592 km^(2);②1980~2020年,流域碳储量呈下降趋势,共减少了1.05×10^(7) t;③在4种情景下,每种土地类型面积都有不同程度地变化,其中SSP1-2.6情景是4种情景中变化比较小的;④与2020年碳储量相比,SSP1-2.6情景碳储量增加了8.7×10^(4) t,SSP2-4.5情景碳储量减少了1.42×10^(7) t,SSP5-8.5情景碳储量减少了1.34×10^(7) t,现状延续情景碳储量减少了1.22×10^(7) t.研究可为未来淮河流域中上游(蚌埠站以上)的土地利用结构管理以及生态保护提供科学依据.

The Huaihe River Basin is located in the north-south climate transition zone of China.The change of carbon storage in this area is of great significance for predicting the future ecological protection,mitigating climate change,and maintaining sustainable development of the Huaihe River Basin.The middle and upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin(above Bengbu station)were taken as the research area.Based on the land use data from 1980 to 2020,the PLUS model was used to simulate and predict the land use types in the study area from 2030 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5,and the continuation of land use status.The carbon module in the InVEST model was used to simulate and predict the carbon storage from 1980 to 2020 and the carbon storage from 2030 to 2100 under various scenarios,and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin were compared and analyzed.The results showed that:①From 1980 to 2020,the basin showed a decrease in both cultivated land and grassland,and the area of forest,water,construction,and unused land all increased,among which the area of cultivated land continued to decrease,with a total decrease of 4699 km^(2) in 40 a.Construction land continued to increase,with a total increase of 4592 km^(2) in 40 a.②The carbon storage in the basin showed a downward trend,with a total reduction of 1.05×107 t from 1980 to 2020.③In the four scenarios,the area of each land type had different degrees of change,and that of the SSP1-2.6 scenario was relatively small out of the four scenarios.④Compared with the carbon storage in 2020,the carbon storage in the SSP1-2.6 scenario increased by 8.7×10^(4) t,the carbon storage in the SSP2-4.5 scenario decreased by 1.42×10^(7) t,the carbon storage in the SSP5-8.5 scenario decreased by 1.34×10^(7) t,and the carbon storage in the current continuation scenario decreased by 1.22×10^(7) t.The study can provide a scientific basis for land use structure management and ecological protection in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin(above Bengbu station)in the future.