中国式现代化水平的多维测度

Multidimensional Measurement of the Level of Chinese Modernization

中国式现代化发展水平的提升,对实现第二个百年奋斗目标具有十分重要的意义。为了解中国式现代化发展特征,在测度2010—2021年我国各省份中国式现代化水平之后,运用方差分解、核密度估计、莫兰指数方法分别对其差异来源、动态演进特征和空间相关性进行分析。研究发现,中国式现代化发展水平在不断提升,但是区域差异明显,沿海地区中国式现代化发展水平整体较高,西北经济区中国式现代化发展水平整体较低。各维度差异的影响在东、中、西部发展初期存在异质性,但是在发展后期经济繁荣差异和共同富裕差异是影响中国式现代化发展不平衡的主要因素。从中国式现代化发展水平的演变特征来看,东部地区中国式现代化发展水平的差异在逐渐增大,而中西部地区在逐渐缩小,但是中西部地区两极分化现象较为严重。此外,中国式现代化发展水平在空间上呈显著的正相关性,且主要以弱聚集为主,大多集中在东北地区和西北经济区。

Enhancing the development stage of modernization with Chinese characteristics is important for achieving the second centenary goal.To understand the development characteristics of Chinese modernization,after evaluating the level of Chinese modernization in China′s provinces from 2010 to 2021,an analysis of the variations in sources,dynamic evolution patterns,and spatial correlations is conducted through variance decomposition,kernel density estimation,and Moran′s index method.The research finds that the level of Chinese modernization is rising overall,but the regional differences are obvious,with coastal regions showing higher development levels compared to the Northwest Economic Zone which has lower development levels.In the initial phase of development in the east,middle,and west regions,the effects of variations in each aspect vary,while in the later stage,disparities in economic wealth and shared resources are the key factors influencing the uneven progress of Chinese modernization.The variations in the level of Chinese modernization development are increasing in the eastern region,and decreasing in the central and western regions.However,the polarization in the central and western regions is more severe.Furthermore,the level of development of modernization in the Chinese demonstrates a strong positive correlation across regions,with a mostly dispersed distribution but concentrated primarily in the Northeast and Northwest Economic Zone.