威胁平衡视角下以色列“外围战略”的复归及现实困境

The Return and Practical Dilemma of Israel's"Periphery"Strategy from the Perspective of Threat Balancing

“外围战略”是以色列建国后抗衡阿拉伯世界的重要外交手段。随着《埃以和约》的签订,以色列传统“外围战略”逐渐式微。“阿拉伯之春”爆发后,中东地区政治秩序面临重大变化。以色列经历了从建国之初阿拉伯国家发动大规模常规战争带来巨大生存威胁,向当下虽面临多重威胁但国家本体地位稳固的转变,威胁来源复杂但强度明显弱化,然而“外围战略”再次回归和复兴。出现这一悖论的原因在于,除了权势位移、地缘政治形势变化、军事实力不断强化等物质性因素的制约,对威胁感知的持续性主观建构影响着以色列的战略选择并强化了以色列对威胁平衡的路径依赖。“外围战略”回归和复兴后的变化表现为以色列对外围伙伴的选择上实现了从隐蔽到开放的拓展,合作领域实现了从政治(主要是军事情报合作)到经济领域的转变。新“外围战略”作为一种短期的实用主义战略,受到巴勒斯坦核心问题的影响,成效有限且不能真正解决以色列的地区孤立,特别是在战争环境下。

"Periphery"strategy is an important diplomatic doctrine for Israel to balance the hostility of the Arab world after its establishment.With the signing of the"Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty",Israel's traditional peripheral strategy has gradually declined.After the outbreak of the"Arab Spring",the political order in the Middle East is facing major changes.Israel has experienced a transition from the huge survival threat brought by the large-scale conventional war launched by the Arab world to the current situation where Israel's national status is stable despite multiple threats.The sources of threats are complex but the intensity is significantly weakened.Israel's periphery strategy has returned and revived again.The reason for this paradox is that in addition to the constraints of material factors such as power shift,changes in the geopolitical situation,and the continuous strengthening of military strength,the subjective construction of the continuity of threat perception affects Israel's strategic choices.Persistent threat perception strengthens Israel's path dependence on threat balance.The changes after the return and revival of the peripheral strategy are reflected in Israel's expansion from concealment to openness in the choice of peripheral partners,and the transformation from politics(mainly military intelligence cooperation)to the economic field in the field of cooperation.As a short-term pragmatic strategy,the new periphery strategy is affected by the core issue of Palestine,has limited effectiveness and cannot truly solve Israel's regional isolation,especially under war conditions.