生育支持型家庭政策的国际实践及其微观生育效应--基于国际文献的元分析发现

The Impact of Family Policies on Individuals'Fertility Behaviors--A Meta-Analytic Review on International Empirical Research

生育支持型家庭政策是多数低生育国家的政策选择,全面评估这些政策的实施效应具有重要的学术价值和现实意义。文章以现有国际经验研究成果为基础,运用元分析方法对既有文献的研究发现进行二次分析,总结不同类型的政策对微观个体生育行为的影响及其在不同情境下的差异。研究发现,各国实施的时间支持、服务支持和经济支持政策均对个体生育行为具有显著的促进效应,但其效应大小因具体情境而异。分孩次看,时间支持政策对二孩生育有正向效应,服务支持政策对二孩和三孩均有显著的正向效应,但经济支持政策对各孩次生育均无显著的影响。在生育率很低的(TFR<1.5)国家,上述3类政策的效应均相对更大;在福利水平较低的国家,时间支持和服务支持政策的效应更大;在性别平等程度较高的国家,服务支持和经济支持政策的效应显著更大。基于上述研究结论,文章指出,中国生育支持型家庭政策体系需要兼顾发展阶段的特点和孩次全覆盖原则,未来一段时期内应注重服务和时间支持为主、经济支持为辅的配套政策;同时,考虑地区发展水平的差异,调整中央和地方财政关于生育支持配套措施的成本分担比例,探索适合不同发展水平的政策组合。

This study conducts a meta-analytic review of global empirical studies,examining the impact of economic,time,and service-based fertility-support policies on individual fertility behaviors,also exploring the variations of policy effectiveness by total fertility rates(TFR),welfare levels,and gender equity levels.Results show that all the three types of policies positively influence fertility behaviors.Time support impacts second birth,service support impacts second and third birth,while economic support has no effect,irrespective of birth orders.Time and service support is more effective in countries with TFR below 1.5 or with lower welfare levels.Service and economic support is more effective in countries with higher levels of gender equity.Considering the Chinese context,the design of family policies should consider variations by socio-economic development and birth order,prioritizing service and time support with economic support as supplementary.Regional development diferences should also be considered,adjusting financial contributions between central and local governments,and exploring various combinations of policies according to regional disparities.