“一带一路”倡议的外交政策效应——基于大数据双边关系衡量的分析

Foreign Policy Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative: Bilateral Relationship Measurement Based on Big Data

自共建“一带一路”倡议提出以来,学界对其政治经济影响进行了广泛讨论。当前研究大多侧重于分析“一带一路”倡议的经济效果,然而受限于测量双边关系的数据和方法,既有研究忽略了对“一带一路”倡议外交政策效应的分析。本研究通过建立三重差分模型,在利用大数据和潜因子网络分析方法构建测量全球月度层面上的双边关系新数据基础上,致力于评估“一带一路”倡议对双边外交关系的影响。本研究提出,虽然“一带一路”倡议总体上呈现了相当程度积极的外交政策效应,但由于相关国家的身份不同,“一带一路”倡议对这些国家与中国、美国的双边关系也会形成不同的影响。对于美国盟友和东盟等国家而言,加入“一带一路”倡议会推动这些国家选择“对冲”战略。而对于与中国存在双边投资协议的国家和上合组织成员国来说,加入“一带一路”倡议则会改善这些国家与中国的外交关系或增加其对中国的国际支持。因此,在评估“一带一路”倡议的外交效应时,不能笼统加以判断,而需要考虑其他异质性因素的影响。在测量双边关系时,大数据测量指标、传统基于联大投票的“理想点”数据和清华中外关系数据各有优劣,研究者应该根据研究问题和理论框架进行综合选择。

The political and economic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has been widely discussed in the academic community since the initiative was proposed.However,most of the existing research focuses on the economic effect of the BRI,with the foreign policy effect largely ignored due to the limitation of data and methodology for measuring bilateral relations.To address this limitation,this paper analyzes the foreign policy effect of the BRI on bilateral relations by a triple difference model which uses big data and latent factor network to construct new data measuring bilateral relations at the global monthly level.This study suggests that while the BRI has had a considerably positive foreign policy effect,the different identities of the countries involved affect its impact on the country's bilateral relations with China and the United States.For U.S.allies and ASEAN countries,joining the BRI could push them towards a hedging strategy.For countries with which China has bilateral investment agreements and SCO members,joining the BRI could improve their diplomatic relations with China or increase their international support for China.Therefore,when assessing the diplomatic effect of the BRI,we should consider the impact of heterogeneous factors rather than make generalized and simple judgments.Big data measurement indicators,the traditional ideal point data based on the UN General Assembly votes and the Tsinghua Sino-Foreign relations data have their own merits and demerits in measuring bilateral relations,and researchers should make their choice based on their research question and theoretical framework.