百年变局下的大国战争风险及其管控

The Peril of Great Power Wars and Their Management in an Era of Profound Changes Unseen in a Century

世界面临百年未有之大变局,经贸冲突和地缘对抗正在重塑大国关系,国际社会对大国之间可能再次爆发战争的担忧也在上升。大国战争形态的历史演变有其规律所在,大国的实力消长、技术进步和社会变革都会深度影响大国战争的历史进程。当前,大国爆发战争的风险正在上升,权力转移进入关键期、大国战争禁忌消解、核武器的威慑作用受到侵蚀以及新技术改变战争的制胜机理是四个关键驱动力量。为此,大国正在重新评估自身所处局势,对下一场战争的恐惧使得它们必须考虑最坏的情况。有些国家选择通过强化扩军备战、推动经济脱钩、构建战时同盟来应对危局,这无疑增加了大国之间陷入“自我实现的预言”的可能性,从而在理论上增加了大国之间发生战争的概率,也是新时期大国战争的主要生成路径。为避免走向冲突和战争,各大国不应任由事态发展,而应积极管控,防止脱轨失控,甚至滑向战争。为此,政治家应该推动各国积极管控战争预期、保持战略沟通、明确政策底线,对本国以及世界所面临的战略性、全局性、根本性问题做出回应,以最大限度避免世界走向灾难。

At present,the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,economic and trade conflicts and geopolitical confrontation are reshaping the relations among great powers,and the international community's concern about the possibility of war between great powers is on the rise.The historical evolution of great power wars has its own patterns,and changes in the strength of great powers,technological advances and social transformations all have a profound impact on their historical process.Currently,the risk of the outbreak of a great power war is on the rise because of four key driving forces:power transition has entered a critical period,the taboo of great power war is being dissolved,the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons is being eroded,and new technologies are changing the winning mechanism of war.Against such a backdrop,the great powers are reassessing their own situations,and the fear of the next war forces them to consider the worst-case scenario.Some countries have chosen to respond to the critical situation by intensifying military build-up,promoting economic decoupling and building wartime alliances.This undoubtedly increases the possibility of great power relations falling into a“self-fulfilling prophecy”,thereby theoretically increasing the probability of war between them.This is the main generative path for great power wars in the new era.To avoid conflict and war,the great powers should not leave things as they are,but should take measures to prevent them from derailing and even sliding into war.To this end,politicians should promote the active management of war expectations,maintain strategic communication,clarify the bottom line of policies,and respond actively to the strategic,global and fundamental issues facing their countries as well as the world,so as to prevent the world,to the greatest extent possible,from heading for disaster.