长江经济带城市绿色技术创新对碳排放影响的空间效应研究

Spatial Effect of Urban Green Technology Innovation on Carbon Emissions in Yangtze River Economic Belt

推进经济绿色低碳转型是贯彻新时代习近平生态文明思想的必然要求,绿色技术创新作为实现“双碳”目标的核心支撑,但学界尚缺乏对发展中国家绿色技术创新对碳排放的影响及其空间效应的深入探讨。基于2006~2020年长江经济带110个城市的面板数据,综合运用GIS空间分析和空间计量模型,展开绿色技术创新对碳排放影响的空间效应研究。结果表明:(1)2006~2020年长江经济带城市绿色技术创新与碳排放空间分布呈现非均衡性,绿色技术创新空间极化现象显著,由长三角地区核心城市主导,中西部省会城市协同推进的创新格局日益突出,高碳区域在下游地区连片分布,中上游地区零星分布;绿色技术创新与碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,空间集聚演化呈现空间锁定和路径依赖。(2)绿色技术创新对碳排放的影响呈现显著的“U”型关系,空间溢出效应呈现倒“U”型相反的关系,反映出技术创新的“回弹效应”与“极化-涓滴”效应。(3)异质性分析显示,相比于资源型城市,非资源型城市绿色技术创新的碳减排效应更强,碳增排效应偏弱;上游城市绿色技术创新对碳排放的影响主要体现在短期,直接效应为“U”型,间接效应为倒“U”型,中游城市主要体现在长期,直接效应和间接效应均呈现倒“U”型,下游城市无论是短期还是长期影响都不显著。

Promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy is the inevitable requirement of implementing Xi’s ecological civilization thought in the new era.Green technology innovation is the core support to achieve the“double carbon”goal,but the academic community is still lack of in-depth discussion on the impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions and its spatial effect in developing countries.Based on the panel data of 110 cities in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2006 to 2020,the spatial effect of green technology innovation on carbon emissions is studied by using GIS spatial analysis and spatial econometric model.The results show that:(1)from 2006 to 2020,the spatial distribution of green technology innovation and carbon emissions in the cities of the Yangtze River economic belt is unbalanced,and the spatial polarization of green technology innovation is significant.The innovation pattern dominated by the core cities in the Yangtze River Delta and promoted by the capital cities in the central and western regions is increasingly prominent,and the high-carbon regions are distributed in the downstream regions and scattered in the upper and middle regions;There is a significant positive spatial correlation between green technology innovation and carbon emissions,and the evolution of spatial agglomeration shows spatial lock-in and path dependence.(2)The impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions shows a significant“U”shaped relationship,and the spatial spillover effect shows an inverted“U”shaped opposite relationship,reflecting the“rebound effect”and“polarization trickle down”effect of technological innovation.(3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that compared with resourcebased cities,the carbon emission reduction effect of green technology innovation in non resource-based cities is stronger,while the carbon emission increase effect is weaker;The impact of green technology innovation in upstream cities on carbon emissions is mainly reflected in the short term,with the direct effect of“U”type and the indirect effect of“inverted U”type.The impact of green technology innovation in midstream cities is mainly reflected in the long term,with the direct effect and indirect effect of“inverted U”type.The impact of downstream cities is not significant in both the short term and the long term.