湿地生态系统服务与景观生态风险时空演变及关联性——以杭嘉湖平原为例

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Correlation of Wetland Ecosystem Services and Landscape Ecological Risks: A Case Study of Hangjiahu Plain

理解生态系统服务和生态风险的时空演变特征及相互关系,是制定针对性生态系统管理策略以维持区域生态安全和可持续发展的基础。湿地为人类提供了多类重要的生态系统服务,同时其生态敏感度较高,容易受到城市化和人类活动的干扰。以杭嘉湖平原为研究对象,基于2000、2010、2020年3期土地利用及社会经济学统计数据,采用InVEST生态系统服务模型、景观生态风险指数、双变量空间自相关分析方法和空间回归模型等方法,评估并探究生态系统服务功能与景观生态风险的时空演变趋势及关联性。结果表明:(1)从2000~2020年,杭嘉湖平原湿地生态系统服务以东南部的高值区为核心向外依次扩散,逐渐降低,随着时间的推移逐渐由聚集性向分散性转变。(2)2000、2010和2020年,景观生态风险指数分别为0.0286、0.0277和0.0266,研究区整体从中等风险等级转入较低风险等级,研究区生态风险状况有所改善,高和较高风险区主要呈片状分布在研究区西部及北部。(3)景观生态风险与生态系统服务存在一定的空间集聚特征,景观生态风险与综合生态系统服务之间的关系表现出显著负向相关,即景观生态风险与综合生态系统服务存在互馈效应,负向影响与关联随时间推移逐渐减弱。研究结果能为制定降低区域生态风险、增强生态系统服务能力维持湿地生态系统持续健康稳定的政策提供理论依据。

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics and interrelationships among ecosystem services and ecological risks is crucial for crafting targeted ecosystem management strategies,ensuring regional ecological security and sustainable development.Wetlands provide various crucial ecosystem services to humanity,yet they exhibit high ecological sensitivity and are susceptible to disturbances from urbanization and human activities.This study focused on the Hangjiahu Plain,and utilized data from land use and socioeconomic statistics for 2000,2010,and 2020.By employing the InVEST ecosystem service model,landscape ecological risk index,bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis,and geographically weighted regression model,a quantitative assessment was conducted to explore the spatiotemporal trends and correlations between ecosystem service functions and landscape ecological risks.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the wetland ecosystem services in the study area decreased gradually from the high-value area in the southeast,and expanded outward sequentially.A transition from aggregative to dispersive with time was found.(2)The landscape ecological risk indices were 0.0286,0.0277,and 0.0266,respectively.The overall ecological risk level in the study area shifted from a moderate risk level to a lower risk level.High and moderately high-risk areas were mainly distributed in patches in the western and northern parts of the study area.(3)Landscape ecological risks and ecosystem services exhibited spatial clustering characteristics.The relationship between landscape ecological risks and comprehensive ecosystem services showed a significant negative correlation,indicating a feedback effect.This negative impact and correlation gradually weakened over time.This study provided a theoretical basis for the development of policies aimed at reducing regional ecological risks and enhancing the capacity of ecosystem services to sustain the continuous health and stability of wetland ecosystems.