突发事件应急预案的若干理论与实践问题思辨

Speculation on Some Theoretical and Practical Issues about Emergency Plans

2018年机构改革以来,全国应急预案体系建设进入了全面重构升级的历史机遇期,从理论和实践相结合的视角梳理分析预案作用机制对持续稳定发挥应急预案在应急管理工作中的牵总作用具有重要理论和现实意义。本文从应急预案的基本构成出发,从应急预案体系建构、预案编制、预案全生命周期管理三个层面揭示阐释预案作用机制,遵循“问题表现——原因分析——改进思路”的基本逻辑深入分析了应急预案编制工作小组的设想与现实、风险评估在预案编制过程中的作用发挥机制、预警响应与应急响应的关系、分级响应的意涵变化与实践运用、应急预案的计划性与适应性、预案有效性的评价标准等影响预案质量和实施绩效等突出矛盾问题,揭示了预案全生命周期各阶段各相关方面工作对于预案有效性的复杂综合作用,强调以过程视角而非结果视角开展应急预案体系建设工作,从预案全生命周期着眼,充分发挥预案预期作用。

In this paper,the functioning mechanism of emergency plans has been revealed sequentially from the aspects of emer⁃gency plan system construction,emergency planning,and emergency plan life-span management on the basis of analysis of the emergency plan structure.The problems,causes and possible solving suggestions about the ideal and reality of the emergency plan⁃ning group,the functioning mechanism of risk assessment during the emergency planning process,the relationship between early warning response and emergency response,the meaning evolution and practical application of graded response,the combined na⁃ture of planning and adapting of emergency plans,and the effectiveness criteria for emergency plans,have been discussed in de⁃tails.Through the above discussion,the complex influence of various factors on emergency plan effectiveness during its life span has been revealed,the process viewpoint rather than outcome viewpoint has been proposed to be employed in emergency plan sys⁃tem construction,and the practical way for emergency plans to fully assume their supposed functions has to be built on their whole life span.