美联储降息对国际油价的历史影响与现实启示

The historical impacts and practical enlightenments of the Fed's interest rate cutting policy on international oil prices

在利率机制、汇率机制及信息效应与市场预期等传导作用下,美联储降息政策对国际石油市场产生溢出效应,造成国际油价波动。通过构建VAR模型和脉冲响应分析美联储降息政策与国际原油价格的关系。考虑到WTI原油期货合约于1983年上市,以1983年3月30日—2024年1月23日WTI原油日度价格的时间序列数据为样本,结合期间6次美联储降息周期,进行历史规律分析。美联储的“缓步式降息”“骤降式降息”“预防式降息”策略对国际油价的影响各不相同。当前,在美国通胀放缓、美国经济存在潜在衰退风险的背景下,2024年内美联储可能开启降息周期,短期内国际油价可能先跌后涨,长期将逐步恢复到正常区间。建议多措并举应对油价波动风险,依托上海原油期货规避汇率风险。

Under the transmission of interest rate mechanism,exchange rate mechanism and information effect,and market expectation,the Federal Reserve's interest rate cutting policy has a spillover effect on the international oil market,resulting in the fluctuation of international oil prices.The paper analyzes the relationship between the Fed's interest rate cutting policy and international crude oil prices by constructing the VAR model and impulse response.Considering that the WTI crude oil futures contract was listed in 1983,it takes the time series data of the daily price of WTI crude oil from March 30,1983 to January 23,2024 as a sample,and analyzes historical patterns by combining the six Fed interest rate cuting cycles during this period and the impact of the Fed's"slow-step"rate cuts,"sharp"rate cuts,and"precautionary"rate cuts strategies on international oil prices is different.At present,under the background of the US infation slowdown and the potential recession risk of the US economy,the Fed may start the interest rate cuting cycle in 2024.The paper proposes that international oil prices may first fall and then rise in the short term,and will gradually return to the normal range in the long run.It is recommended to take measures to deal with the risk of oil price fluctuations and avoid exchange rate risks by relying on Shanghai crude oil futures.