目的国难民冲击对中国出口的影响:来自中欧贸易的证据

The Influence of Refugee Crisis in the Destination Countries on China's Exports:Evidence From Trade Between China and Europe

探讨难民涌入对进口贸易的影响机制,事关中国如何应对欧洲遭遇的难民冲击,从中优化贸易结构、稳定贸易水平。文章基于2013年欧洲发生的难民危机设置准自然实验,结合双重差分估计与贸易引力模型检验难民流入欧洲对中国出口贸易的影响。结果显示,欧洲遭遇的难民冲击导致中国出口贸易额下降12%~14%左右。机制检验发现,难民涌入促使左翼民粹政党支持率上升,进而推动主流政党采取贸易保护举措,限制了中国的出口贸易。异质性分析显示,欧洲难民冲击对劳动力密集型的加工贸易品出口存在显著的负面影响,而非劳动力密集型贸易品出口不受影响;受中国贸易冲击越多的国家或年份,难民冲击负面影响越大;难民冲击主要对中国的燃料与润滑剂类、除运输设备外的资本物品及其部件和零部件类、运输设备及其部件和零部件类商品出口有显著负向影响。上述结果表明,一旦在经济政策的分析中考虑难民社会融入的因素,兼顾对用工成本造成的影响,难民涌入就更可能抑制而非促进贸易。

Exploring the influencing mechanism of refugee influx on import trade is related to how China responds to refugee crisis in Europe so as to optimize trade structure and stabilize trade level.This paper designs a quasi-natural experiment based on the refugee crisis that occurred in Europe in 2013,and uses DID estimation and trade gravity model to examine the influence of refugee inflow into Europe on China's export trade.The results show that the refugee crisis in Europe has led to a decrease of 12%to 14%in China's export trade volume.Mechanism test reveals that refugee influx increases the approval ratings of left-wing populist parties and leads the mainstream parties to adopt trade protection measures,thus inhibiting China's export trade.Heterogeneity analysis shows that refugee crisis in Europe has a significant negative impact on the exports of labor-intensive processing trade products,while the exports of non-labor-intensive trade products are not affected;the refugee crisis will have greater negative impact on the countries or years which are more impacted by China's trade;the refugee crisis mainly exerts a significant negative impact on China's exports of fuel and lubricants,capital goods and their components and parts other than transportation equipment,and transportation equipment and its components and parts.The above results indicate that once the factor of refugee social integration is considered in economic policy analysis and the impact on labor costs is taken into account,the refugee influx is more likely to inhibit rather than promote trade.