基于数字画像的综合能源系统技术推广应用评价方法

An evaluation method of technology popularization and application of integrated energy system based on digital portrait

综合能源系统(integrated energy systems,IES)打破了各种终端能源网络间的界限,对其技术推广应用进行综合评价是推动IES发展建设的重要环节。针对IES技术范畴广、影响因素多、评价指标繁杂的问题,结合运筹学综合评价理论和数字画像技术,建立IES技术推广应用评价模型和方法。该评价模型以海量监测数据及IES运行数据为基础,从环境、性能、经济、社会等维度生成多源特征评价标签体系,融合多方面IES技术推广应用信息,构建完整、多维的IES技术画像;根据专家打分、IES原始数据重要信息特征筛选,通过层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法主客观结合的赋权方法对标签赋权,精细化计算权重形成精准刻画IES技术画像的轮廓。选取上海临港国家级IES示范项目以及北方某园区级IES项目为算例进行评估验证,结果证明本模型和方法在工程应用方面具有适用性,可为IES设计建设及关键技术推广应用提供参考。

Integrated energy system(IES)has broken the boundaries between various terminal energy networks.Comprehensive evaluation of its technology popularization and application is an important step to promote the development and construction of IES.To cope with the problems of IES such as technology's wide scope,large number influencing factors,and complicated evaluation indexes,an evaluation model and method of IES technology's popularization and application are established by combining operation research comprehensive evaluation theory and digital portrait technology.Based on massive monitoring data and IES operation data,the evaluation model generates a multi-source feature evaluation label system regarding to environment,performance,economy and society,and integrates the popularization and application information from many aspects to build a complete and multidimensional IES technology portrait.According to expert scoring and important information feature screening of IES original data,a method combining subjective and objective analytic hierarchy process(AHP-entropy weight method)is used to assign weights to the labels,and the contour of IES technical portrait is formed by fine weight calculation.Finally,the national IES demonstration project in Shanghai Lingang and a park level IES project in the north are selected as examples for evaluation and verification.Results show that the model and method proposed in this paper are applicable in engineering applications and can provide reference for design and construction of IES and promotion and application of key technologies.