南昌市土地利用碳储量变化及多情景预测

Changes and multi-scenario prediction of land-use carbon storage in Nanchang City

以南昌市为研究对象,基于2000-2020年5期土地利用数据,耦合In VEST和PLUS模型,研究南昌市2000-2020年和未来不同情景下的土地利用变化和碳储量的时空演变格局。结果表明,近20年南昌市土地利用变化的主要特征为建设用地面积的快速增加(+90166.26 hm^(2))和耕地面积的显著减少(-84327.95 hm^(2))。2000-2010年和2010-2020年间的土地转移面积分别占总面积的28.45%、31.51%,其中耕地转出最多,建设用地转入最多。20年间,南昌市碳储量减少7.21×10^(6)t,林地转为耕地是前10年碳储量减少的主要原因,而耕地转为建设用地则是后10年碳储量下降的主导因素。碳储量空间分布呈“东南、西北及西部高,东部、北部及中部低”的格局。与2020年相比,2040年自然增长、城镇发展和生态保护情景下,碳储量分别减少3.23×10^(6)t、5.08×10^(6)t、0.32×10^(6)t,生态保护情景有利于碳储量平衡,现有建成区发展中的接壤空间将是碳流失发生的主要区域。

Taking Nanchang City as the research object,based on five periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020,the study coupled the InVEST and PLUS models to explore the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of land-use changes and carbon storage in Nanchang City from 2000 to 2020 and under different future scenarios.The results showed that:the main characteristics of land-use change in Nanchang in recent 20 years were the rapid increase of construction land area(+90166.26 hm^(2))and the significant decrease of cultivated land area(-84327.96 hm^(2)).The proportion of land transfer area to total area was 28.45%and 31.51%for the periods from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020,respectively.Among the land-use types that had been transferred,farmland had been transferred out the most,while construction land had been transferred in the most.In the past 20 years,the carbon storage of Nanchang decreased by 7.21×10^(6) t.The conversion of forest land to arable land was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage in the first 10 years,while the conversion of arable land to construction land was the dominant factor for the decline of carbon storage in the last 10 years.The spatial distribution of carbon storage was"high in southeast,northwest and west,low in east,north and central".In addition,the carbon storage would decrease respectively by 3.23×10^(6) t,5.08×10^(6) t and 0.32×10^(6) t in 2040 under the scenarios of natural growth,urban development and ecological protection compared with 2020.Ecological protection scenerio contributes to carbon storage balance,and the bordering space in the development of the existing built-up urban area will be the main area where carbon loss occurs.