基于毕达哥拉斯模糊概率Petri网的FPSO单点关键部件风险评估

Risk Assessment of FPSO Single Point Critical Components Based on Pythagorean Fuzzy Probability Petri Nets

为准确对FPSO单点系泊系统关键部件进行风险评估,通过产生式规则建立概率Petri网络模型,基于德尔菲法的结构熵权法确定专家权重,并引入毕达哥拉斯模糊集理论收集、聚合专家意见得到基本事件的模糊可能性得分和模糊失效概率,利用概率推理算法迭代出最终的失效概率,并进行基本事件重要度分析。实例分析结果表明,引起单点系泊系统发生失效的主要因素有电滑环电刷磨损、电滑环负载电流较高、液滑环结构物晃动冲击、液滑环润滑不充分、电滑环电压过高击穿等。针对主要风险因素提出预防和控制措施,能够保障系统安全正常地运转。

In order to accurately assess the risk of the key components of the FPSO single-point mooring system,this paper established a probabilistic Petri net model through generative rules,determined the expert weights by the structural entropy weight method based on the Delphi method,introduced the Pythagorean fuzzy set theory to collect and aggregate expert opinions to obtain the fuzzy probability score and fuzzy failure probability of the basic event,used the probabilistic reasoning algorithm to iterate the final failure probability,and analyzed the importance of the basic event.The results of the case analysis showed that the main factors causing the failure of the single-point mooring system are the wear of the brush of the slip ring,the high load current of the slip ring,the shaking impact of the slip ring structure,the insufficient lubrication of the slip ring,and the breakdown of the slip ring voltage is too high.The prevention and control measures were proposed for the main risk factors,which can ensure the safe and normal operation of the system.