摘要
为准确进行西藏年楚河流域未来土地利用模拟,对比分析了FLUS模型(Future Land Use Simulation Model)和PLUS模型(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)在该流域LUCC(土地利用(Land use)/土地覆盖变化(Land cover change))模拟的结果,并在此基础上开展了研究区2030年的土地利用模拟应用。结果表明:(1)采用本地化参数的FLUS模型获得的模拟结果与真实数据的Kappa系数(0.6350)、FOM系数(0.0800)以及模拟图像的总体精度(0.8240)均优于PLUS模型模拟的结果,表明FLUS模型在研究区具有更好的适用性;(2)依据过去的土地利用变化数据对模型的领域权重和转移矩阵参数进行本地化处理,可提高模拟结果与真实数据的Kappa系数,有助于增强模型在区域的适用性;(3)基于FLUS模型的2030年年楚河流域土地利用模拟结果显示,该区域草地、湿地与水体面积将继续减少,耕地、城市、未利用土地、积雪与冰川将增加,林地变化不大,其中,最主要的土地利用变化由草地变为未利用土地。
Land use/Land cover change(LUCC)simulation is a hot topic in research of global change.In order to simulate accurately in the future land use in the region,the results of commonly used FLUS model and PLUS model adopted in LUCC simulation in the Nianchu River Basin were compared and analyzed,and based on this,the land use in year 2030 in the research area was simulated.The results showed that:(1)The simulation accura⁃cy of the FLUS model with localized parameters have better Kappa coefficient(0.6350),FOM coefficient(0.0800),and overall accuracy of 0.8240 compared to the simulation results of the PLUS model,indicating that the FLUS model has better applicability in the study area.(2)The localized domain weight and transfer matrix pa⁃rameters of the model based on the past data of land use change can improve the Kappa coefficient between simu⁃lation results and real data,which helps enhance the applicability of the model in the region.(3)The land use simulation results in year 2030 based on FLUS model showed that grassland,wetland and water body in the Nian⁃chu River basin will decrease continuously in the near future,while the arable land,cities,unused land,snow and glaciers will increase,and the forest land will not change much.During this period,the most significant land use change will be the conversion of grasslands into unused land.The results of the study can provide a basis for future research on land use changes and their impacts in the Nianchu River Basin as well as a reference for se⁃lecting models in simulating future land use and setting model parameters in other regions.
作者
谭溪晗
冯文兰
徐维新
李林
牛晓俊
TAN Xihan;FENG Wenlan;XU Weixin;LI Lin;NIU Xiaojun(College of Resources and Environment,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Climate Center of Tibet Autonomous Region,Lhasa 850000,China)
出处
《高原科学研究》
CSCD
2024年第3期34-45,共12页
Plateau Science Research
基金
西藏自治区科技计划项目(XZ202102YD0012C)
四川省科技厅自然科学基金面上项目(2022NSFSC0231).