我国西南地区基于人口和GDP的城市供水管网地震易损性模型

Seismic vulnerability model of urban water supply networks based on population and GDP in southwest China

供水管网是城镇生命线工程的重要组成部分,科学合理的供水管网地震易损性模型是实施灾害风险调查和重点隐患排查工程的关键科学问题之一,特别是大区域供水管网地震灾害风险评估需要明确供水管网分区分类地震易损性模型作为支撑。然而,由于供水管网发展过程的复杂性等相关原因,许多城镇尚无法提供准确有效的管网基础数据以进行有效的地震易损性评估。为了建立我国西南地区无管网基础数据的城镇供水管网的地震易损性模型,基于已经建立的有管网基础数据的城市供水管网地震易损性模型,采用多项式拟合方法,分别给出了有管网基础数据城镇供水管网的规模、地震易损性类别与城镇人口、GDP之间的关系模型,进而可根据无管网基础数据的城镇人口、GDP数据估计其管网规模和地震易损性类别,为全面开展大区域供水管网地震灾害风险评估奠定了基础。

The water supply network is an important component of urban lifeline engineering,a scientific and reasonable seismic vulnerability model for the water supply network is one of the key scientific issues for implementing disaster risk investigation and key hidden danger investigation projects.Especially for large-scale water supply network seismic disaster risk assessment,it is necessary to clarify the seismic vulnerability model of the water supply network zoning and classification as support.However,due to the complexity of the development process of the water supply network,many towns are still unable to provide accurate and effective basic data of the network for effective seismic vulnerability assessment.In order to establish the seismic vulnerability model of the urban water supply network without the basic data of the pipe network in southwest China,based on the established seismic vulnerability model of the urban water supply network with the basic data of the pipe network,the polynomial fitting method is used to give the relationship model between the scale and seismic vulnerability category of the urban water supply network with the basic data of the pipe network,the urban population and GDP.Then the pipe network scale and seismic vulnerability category can be estimated according to the urban population and GDP data without the basic data of the pipe network.It has laid the foundation for comprehensively carrying out the seismic disaster risk assessment of the large-scale water supply networks.