新疆农业生产活动碳排放量核算及影响因素研究

Study on Carbon Emission Accounting and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Production Activities in Xinjiang

新疆作为中国的农业大区,明晰其农业碳排放量及影响因素对实现双碳目标有着重要意义。本研究选择农地利用、畜牧养殖、农田土壤N_(2)O排放与秸秆焚烧四类碳源对新疆农业碳排放量进行核算,探究新疆农业碳排放总量及新疆十三地州畜牧养殖与秸秆焚烧碳排放量,然后使用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)法研究新疆农业碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:(1)2001-2020年新疆农业碳排放总量呈现上升-下降-上升的态势;(2)新疆十三地州的畜牧养殖与秸秆焚烧碳排放量差异较大,可按地州分为3个梯队,其中伊犁地区与喀什地区均在第一梯队;(3)通过LMDI方法发现出口反效应、产出规模效应和人口规模效应促进新疆农业碳排放总量的增加,而碳排放强度效应、贸易条件效应、进口效应和就业结构效应均对新疆农业碳排放总量起抑制作用。基于此,从优化农业结构并发展低碳农业、提高资源利用效率和推广减排技术、保护农业生态环境、建立政策体系并提高公众意识等方面提出了对策建议。

As a major agricultural region in China,the clarification of agricultural carbon emissions and influencing factors is crucial for achieving its dual carbon goal.The agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang were assessed by considering four sources of carbon,namely agricultural land utilization,animal husbandry,soil N_(2)O emission,and straw burning.This study aimed to investigate the overall agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang as well as the specific contributions from animal husbandry and straw burning across 13 prefectures.Additionally,the LMDI method was employed to analyze the factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang.The results showed:(1)from 2001 to 2020,total agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang exhibited a pattern of increase followed by decline and subsequent increase again.(2)There is a significant variation in livestock breeding and straw burning carbon emissions among the 13 prefectures of Xinjiang,which can be categorized into three tiers with Yili and Kashgar belonging to the top tier.(3)Through the application of the LMDI method,it was observed that export inverse effect,output scale effect,and population scale effect positively contribute to increased total agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang.Conversely,factors such as carbon emission intensity effect,terms of trade effect,import effect,and employment structure effect act as inhibitors for total agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang.Based on this,some countermeasures were put forward from optimizing agricultural structure and developing low-carbon agriculture,improving resource utilization efficiency and popularizing emission reduction technology,protecting agricultural ecological environment,establishing policy system and raising public awareness.