“十五五”时期我国产业发展环境研判与启示

The Study and Enlightenment of China’s Industrial Development Environment during the 15th Five-year Plan Period

世界百年未有之大变局将持续深度演进,“大国博弈、局部动荡”催动全球产业链供应链从阵营化的“俱乐部”模式走向依靠“中间地带”开展分工贸易的“弱循环”模式,新一轮科技革命“多点暴发、加速迭代、鸿沟扩大”推动全球经济从“大树经济”走向“丛林经济”。“十五五”时期是我国迈入高质量发展阶段和高收入国家行列临界点,也是我国工业化后期向后工业化时代迈进的转折期,还是我国经济改革方略系统性、协调性、对称性调整的关键期,产业发展既面临预期减弱、竞争加剧、减排降碳、人口负增长、城镇化放缓等多重压力,但也面临创新赋智、融合化数字化绿色化“三化”赋值、开放赋能、改革赋力的多重机遇。通过积极培育以人工智能、新能源、生命健康、航天、海洋及消费新业态新模式等为代表的战略性新兴产业和未来产业,能够加快形成新质生产力,推动产业结构转型升级,持续为经济增长提供动能。

The great revolution of the world unseen in this century will advance in a continual and in-depth way,“game of the great powers with partial turmoil”promoting global industrial and supply chains from the Camp Club Mode to the Weak Cycle Mode which carrying out division of labor and trade relying on the“intermediate zone”.More technology eruptions,iteration accelerating,technology gulf increasing in the new round of technologi-cal revolution is driving the global economy from the tree-economy to the jungle-economy.The 15th Five-year Plan Period is the critical time for our country entering the high-quality developing stage and stepping into the high-in-come countries,and also the transition time for our country stepping from the late-stage industrialization toward the post-industrialization era,and also the key time for our country’s economic reform strategy adjustment in systemat-icness,coordination and symmetry.The industry development is facing such multiple pressures as abating expecta-tion,increasing competition,decreasing carbon emission,negatively growing population and slowing of urbanization,but also the multiple opportunities of innovating intelligence,value addition from integration,digitalization and greening,energy and power from opening and reform.Actively cultivating strategic emerging industries and future industries represented by artificial intelligence,new sources of energy,life health,aerospace,marine and new for-mats and modes of consumption will speed up the formation of the new-quality productive forces,promote the trans-forming and upgrading of industrial structure,and provide momentum for the economic growth continuously.