联合大气角动量函数的VAR模型用于日长变化实时快速预报

On the Real-time Prediction of the Variations of Length of Day by the Vector Autoregressive Model Combined with Atmospheric Angular Momentum

日长变化的实时快速预报具有重要的实用价值和科学研究意义,大气角动量函数的轴向分量与日长变化有强相关性,传统预报方法对日常变化的实时快速预报精度不高。经过实验分析,联合大气角动量的向量自回归模型对日长变化进行实时快速预报方法,相对于传统的预报模型,预报精度显著提高。

Real-time prediction of the variations of length of day(LOD)is of great importance in both scientific issues and practical applications.There is a strong correlation between the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum function and the variations of length of day.Traditional forecasting methods have low accuracy in real-time forecasting of length of day.After experimental analysis,it is found that the vector autoregressive model combined with atmospheric angular momentum significantly improves the accuracy of real-time forecasting of length of day compared to traditional forecasting models.