近65年疏勒河流域昌马堡水文站径流演变特征及变异诊断

Runoff evolution characteristics and variation diagnosis at the ChangmabaoHydrological Station in the Shule River basin over the past 65 years

为了掌握疏勒河昌马堡水文站的径流量演变特征,让水文更加有效地服务于经济社会发展及水资源管理,本文收集了昌马堡水文站近65a的实测径流资料,采用不均匀系数法、完全调节系数法、线性回归法、Lee-Heghinian法、Pettitt检验法、时序累积值法对径流量年内分配、年际变化趋势、序列变异进行了分析诊断。结果表明:径流量年内分配极不均匀,随着年份的增长,径流量出现年内分配不均匀且不集中特征;径流量年际变化小,随着年份增长出现增加趋势,1956—2020年共增加13.158亿m 3,多年平均增长率为0.202亿m 3/a;径流量在1998年出现显著性变异;径流量的增长与雪山融水的增加有很大关系,雪山融水增加是导致疏勒河昌马堡水文站径流量增长的主要原因。本次研究可为疏勒河流域在水资源合理配置、工农业生产方面提供数据支持。

In order to understand the runoff evolution characteristics at the Changmabao Hydrological Station in the Shule River,and to make hydrology more effective in serving economic and social development as well as water resources management,this paper collected 65 years of measured runoff data from the Changmabao Hydrological Station.The uneven coefficient method,full adjustment coefficient method,linear regression method,Lee-Heghinian method,Pettitt test,and cumulative time series method were used to analyze and diagnose the intra-annual distribution,inter-annual variation trends,and sequence variation of the runoff.The results indicate that the intra-annual distribution of runoff is extremely uneven,and with the passage of time,the distribution becomes more uneven and less concentrated.Inter-annual variation in runoff is small,but shows an increasing trend over time,with a total increase of 1.3158 billion m 3 from 1956 to 2020,and an average annual growth rate of 20.2 million m 3.Significant variation in runoff occurred in 1998.The increase in runoff is closely related to the increase in glacier meltwater,which is the main cause of the runoff growth at the Changmabao Hydrological Station in the Shule River.This research provides data support for the rational allocation of water resources and industrial and agricultural production in the Shule River basin.