石家庄市非适宜气温对居民急救影响归因分析

Attributable risk analysis of the impact of unsuitable temperature on emergency ambulance dispatches in Shijiazhuang city–based on the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)

目的评估河北省石家庄市非适宜气温造成的人群急救归因风险。方法收集2014年1月1日—2020年12月31日石家庄市的气象数据、大气污染物数据以及居民急救个案资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),定量评估非适宜气温造成的归因风险(AF)。结果2014年1月1日—2020年12月31日共收集石家庄市非意外急救人数293236例,气温与非意外急救的累积暴露–反应关系呈“V”型,由非适宜气温造成的非意外急救AF为8.71%(95%CI=–1.76%~17.70%)。分段情况下,非适宜气温对居民急救的影响以低温为主,由强低温造成的非意外急救AF为3.09%(95%CI=0.55%~5.18%)。分层分析发现,男性更容易受低温的影响,而女性和≥65岁人群对高温更敏感。结论高温和低温均可导致居民急救风险的增加,低温的归因风险更大,且男性对低温更敏感。

Objective Evaluation of the attributable risk of unsuitable temperature on emergency ambulance dispatches in Shijiazhuang city,Hebei province.Methods Meteorological data,air pollutant data,and individual emergency ambulance dispatch records from January 1,2014 to December 31,2020 in Shijiazhuang city were collected.The distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantitatively assess the attributable fraction(AF)of emergency ambulance dispatches caused by unsuitable temperature.Results A total of 293236 non-accidental emergency ambulanc e dispatches were collected in Shijiazhuang city from January 1,2014 to December 31,2020.The cumulative exposureresponse relationship between temperature and non-accidental emergency ambulance dispatches was"V"–shaped.The AF of non-accidental emergency ambulance dispatches caused by unsuitable temperature was 8.71%(95%CI:–1.76%–17.70%).When stratified,the impact of unsuitable temperature on emergency ambulance dispatches was mainly due to low temperature,with the AF of non-accidental emergency ambulance dispatches caused by extreme low temperature being 3.09%(95%CI:0.55%–5.18%).Stratified analysis found that males were more susceptible to low temperature,while females and individuals aged≥65 years old were more sensitive to high temperature.Conclusion Both high and low temperatures can increase the risk of emergency ambulance dispatches,with low temperature having a greater attributable risk.Males are more sensitive to low temperature.