复杂系统中因果涌现的刻画及其问题研究

The Characterizations of Causal Emergence and Their Problems in Complex Systems

复杂系统的非线性动力学挑战了线性因果分析方法,强调形式因和层间因果作用。因果涌现研究将因果关系与涌现理论结合,在表征系统微观与宏观层级的因果有效性基础上,呈现系统跨层级变化中的因果涌现。文章揭示了因果关系研究中将条件关系与概率论相结合的趋势,逐一分析主流因果涌现的度量与识别方案,指明刻画因果涌现的关键在于层级的定义与划分。将复杂系统理论引入因果关系研究,既有助于阐明随附产生的宏观层级具有不可还原的因果有效性的可能性,也为复杂系统特别是复杂社会系统中的宏观行为与规范提供了理论支撑与解释工具。

Nonlinear dynamics in complex systems has challenged linear causal analysis methods,and emphasized the formal causes and the inter-level causality.The research on causal emergence integrates causality with emergentism,based on the characterization of the causal effectiveness of micro level and macro level of the complex system respectively,the causal emergence from the micro level to the macro level is revealed.This paper discloses the tendency of combining conditional relation with probability theory in causality research,elucidates the main measurement and identification schemes of causal emergence in sequence,and indicates that the key to characterizing causal emergence lies in the definition and division of levels.Introducing complex system theories into causality research helps to clarify the possibility of irreducible causal effectiveness of the supervening macro level,and provides theoretical supports and explanatory tools for macroscopic behaviors and norms in complex systems,especially in complex social systems.