太行山地区1973—2022年暴雨时空演变特征分析

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Variations in Heavy Rainfall Events in the Taihang Moutainous Region from 1973 to 2022

基于太行山地区13个气象站点50 a的逐日降水数据,使用Mann-Kendall突变检验、信噪比检验、Sen’s斜率估计、小波分析法、正交函数分解等方法,对太行山地区的暴雨时空演变规律进行了研究。结果表明:(1)太行山地区年暴雨量波动幅度较大,根据拟合斜率和Sen’s斜率估计法的结果可知,太行山地区的暴雨量将会呈增多趋势;(2)Mann-Kendall突变检验和信噪比检验结果表明,2006年太行山暴雨量发生了由少变多的突变;(3)Morlet小波分析结果表明,在2017—2020间研究区暴雨量存在2~3 a的周期尺度变换;(4)该地区暴雨量经验正交函数(EOF)展开的前两个模态显示,暴雨量呈现全区一致变化以及西南—东北向的空间变化特征,这两个模态情境下的暴雨状况受到环流因子和地形的共同影响。

Based on the daily precipitation data from 13 meteorological stations in the Taihang moutainous region(TMR)spanning 50 a period,various methods such as the Mann-Kendall abrupt change test,the signal-to-noise ratio test,the Sen’s slope estimator,the wavelet analysis and the empirical orthogonal function decomposition,were applied to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of heavy rainfall events in the TMR.The findings revealed:(1)Heavy rainfall in the TMR showed the substantial fluctuation.According to the fitted slope and Sen’s slope estimation method,it was suggested that heavy rainfall in this region would experience an increasing trend in the future.(2)The Mann-Kendall abrupt change test and signal-to-noise ratio test indicated a notable transition towards higher levels of heavy rainfall in the TMR in 2006.(3)The Morlet wavelet analysis showed cyclic variations in heavy rainfall with period scales of 2~3 a in the study area.(4)The first two modes of the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)analysis illustrated coherent spatial patterns throughout the entire region in heavy rainfall distribution,including a southwest-northeast reverse pattern.Both patterns were influenced by atmospheric circulation and topography in the TMR.