黄河三角洲地区冰雹灾害风险区划研究——以滨州市为例

Study on Risk Regionalization of Hail Disaster in the Yellow River Delta:Taking Binzhou City for Example

为研究分析黄河三角洲地区冰雹灾害风险区划,为该地区防灾减灾、应急管理等提供气象理论依据。梳理了黄河三角洲地区国家级气象观测站1978—2020年历年发生冰雹灾害基本信息和致灾危险性因子,通过分析气象要素统计特征、气象灾害概率风险、人口密度、经济密度、农作物面积和人口、经济、农业脆弱性,得出危险性评估、暴露度指数和脆弱性指数,用归一化方法建立灾害风险评估模型,形成了黄河三角洲地区GDP、人口和农业气象灾害风险评估与区划。经过分析得出,滨州市冰雹危险性以较低以下为主,冰雹灾害GDP、人口、农业风险均以中风险以下为主,大体上由南向北逐步递减,较高以上风险在邹平市分布范围相对较广。

To study and analyze the risk regionalization of hail disasters in the Yellow River Delta region,and to provide meteorological theoretical basis for disaster prevention,reduction and emergency management in the region,we summarized the basic information and risk factors of hail disasters occurred at national meteorological observation stations in the Yellow River Delta region from 1978 to 2020.By analyzing the statistical characteristics of meteorological factors,probability and risk of meteorological disasters,population density,economic density,crop area,population,economy and agricultural vulnerability,we obtained hazard assessment,exposure index and vulnerability index.We used normalization method to establish a disaster risk assessment model,and formed the risk assessment and zoning of GDP,population,and agricultural meteorological disasters in the Yellow River Delta region.The results show that the risk of hail disaster in Binzhou City is mainly below low,and the GDP,population and agricultural risks of hail disasters are mainly below medium risk,gradually decreasing from south to north.The distribution ranges of higher and higher risks in Zouping City are relatively wide.