新一轮国际产业转移驱动因素影响研究——基于人工成本、税费成本与其他因素的比较分析

A Study on the Driving Factors of a New Round of International Industrial Transfer:A Comparative Analysis of Labor Costs,Tax and Fee Costs and Other

在全球前几次产业转移过程中,人工成本和税费成本被视为核心驱动因素。随着国际形势的变化,全球新一轮产业转移的背景在要素成本之外又增添了其他不确定性。本文认为:仅从最窄的货币工资口径比较,中国制造业名义工资水平高于绝大多数东南亚国家;但换算为购买力平价后的工资差距并不大,且绝对落差正在快速缩小。将研究视角扩大到包括社会保障成本等在内的企业综合用工成本以及其他生产性要素成本后发现,东南亚国家并不具备绝对比较优势。东南亚国家为外商投资所提供的一系列所得税优惠政策,从长远来看并不具备持续性,且已经受到“双支柱”国际税改的较大影响。新一轮全球产业转移的驱动力量已经突破了生产要素价格比较优势的范畴,其他要素逐渐成为主导力量。面向未来,应跳出生产要素价格和税费成本向下竞争的传统思维的栓桔。提升中国制造业的国际竞争力,有赖于人口红利向人才红利转变下的大国人力资本开发与利用,有赖于产业链上高附加值关键环节的保留和创新,有赖于制度优化带来的营商环境的综合提升。

In the past industrial shifts around the world,labor costs,and tax and fee costs were seen as the core drivers.With the changes in the international situation,the background of a new round of global industrial transfer has added other uncertainties in addition to factor costs.This paper holds that the nominal wage of Chinese manufacturing industry is higher than that of most Southeast Asian countries in terms of the narrowest monetary wage comparison.But the wage gap in purchasing power parity is small,and the absolute gap is narrowing fast.After expanding the research perspective to the comprehensive labor costs of enterprises including social security costs and other productive factors costs,it is found that Southeast Asian countries do not have absolute comparative advantages.In recent years,Southeast Asian countries have provided favorable income tax policies for foreign investment,but in the long run,the relevant preferential policies are unsustainable and have been greatly affected by the Two-Pillar international tax reform.The driving force of a new round of global industrial transfer has broken through the category of price comparative advantage of production factors,and other factors have gradually become the dominant force.Facing the future,we should break out of the shackles of the traditional thinking that the price of production factors and the cost of taxes and fees compete downward.To improve the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry,it depends on the development and utilization of human capital in a major country under the transformation of demographic dividend to talent dividend,on the retention and innovation of high value-added key links in the industrial chain,and on the comprehensive improvement of the business environment brought about by system optimization.