基于LMDI的甘肃省工业碳排放现状及影响因子分解研究

Research on the Status Quo of Industrial Carbon Emission and Its Influencing Factors in Gansu Province Based on LMDI

本文指出甘肃省作为我国的老工业基地,近年来,随着经济的快速发展和城镇化进程,以石化能源为主的传统能源结构的变化,导致CO_(2)等温室气体排放量不断增加,在实现“双碳”目标的背景下,研究区域内工业碳排放变化规律及其影响因素具有重要的理论和实践意义。本研究依据中国碳排放数据库和《甘肃省发展年鉴》,运用LMDI模型对甘肃省碳排放变化趋势及其影响因子进行了定量分析,结果显示,1997—2017年,甘肃省能源消费总量和碳排放总量整体上呈波动上升趋势;1995—2017年的23年间,碳排放累计增长量为2424.13万t,增长了约2.5倍;在影响碳排放的因素中,经济规模扩张是碳排放增长的决定性因子,能源强度减低是控制碳排放增长的限制因子,其贡献率分别为70.9%和40.8%,森林碳库能有效地吸收和固定CO_(2),对控制碳排放增长的贡献率达49.8%。本文的研究成果对科学合理地制定节能减排政策具有重要的参考意义。

This paper points out that Gansu Province is an old industrial base in China,in recent years,with the rapid economic development and the process of urbanization,the change of traditional energy structure dominated by petrochemical energy has led to the continuous increase of greenhouse gas emissions such as CO_(2);in the context of realizing the goal of"dual carbon",it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the change law of industrial carbon emissions in the region and its influencing factors.Based on the China carbon emission database and the Gansu Provincial Development Yearbook,this study used LMDI model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the change trend of carbon emission and its influencing factors in Gansu Province.The results showed that from 1997 to 2017,the total energy consumption and total carbon emission in Gansu Province showed an overall fluctuating upward trend;in 23 years from 1995 to 2017,the cumulative increase of carbon emissions is 24.2413 million tons,an increase of about 2.5 times;among the factors affecting carbon emissions,the expansion of economic scale is the decisive factor for the growth of carbon emissions,the reduction of energy intensity is the limiting factor for controlling the growth of carbon emissions,with the contribution rates of 70.9%and 40.8%respectively,the forest carbon pool can effectively absorb and fix CO_(2),contributing 49.8%to carbon emissions.The research results of this paper have important reference significance for scientific and rational formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies.