中国西部中学生道路危险行为倾向评估工具及指标权重研究

Study of an assessment tool for risky road behavior tendencies among middle school students in western China and indicator weights

目的 构建中国西部中学生道路危险行为倾向评估工具并确定其中各项指标及其权重,为中国西部中学生道路安全防控提供参考。方法 对编制的中国西部中学生道路危险行为倾向评估工具采用德尔菲专家咨询法,2023年8月邀请交通安全、教育、医疗等相关领域的18名专家参加咨询,根据咨询结果先筛选指标,再通过层次分析法确定各指标权重及组合权重。结果 最终评估工具共包括3个一级指标、13个二级指标和100个三级指标。专家积极系数为100%,专家平均权威系数0.90;3个一级指标的重要性评分均数为4.67~4.78,13个二级指标的重要性评分均数为4.22~4.89;Kendall协调系数W为0.32,有统计学意义(χ^(2)=96.83,P<0.05)。3个一级指标的权重分别为能力(0.329 4)、机会(0.337 3)、动机(0.333 3);二级指标组合权重排在前3位的依次为社会影响(0.027 4)、知识(0.027 3)与技能(0.026 7)。结论 中国西部中学生道路危险行为倾向评估工具专家认可度较高,且一级和二级指标权重及组合权重较为均等。未来可扩大使用范围,为开展干预工作提供数据支撑。

Objective To develop an assessment tool for risky road behavior tendencies among middle school students in western China,as well as to determine the relevant indices and their weights,so as to provide the reference for road safety prevention and control for middle school students in western China.Methods A Delphi study was employed to construct the assessment tool for risky road behavior tendencies among middle school students in western China.In August 2023,eighteen experts in related fields such as traffic safety,education,and healthcare were invited to achieve Delphi consensus.The final indices were initially selected based on the consulting results,followed by the determination of their individual and combined weights using the analytic hierarchy process.Results The finalized assessment tool comprised 3 primary indicators,13 secondary indicators,and 100 tertiary indicators.The positivity coefficient of experts was 100%,accompanied by the authority coefficient 0.90.The mean importance scores for the three primary indicators varied from 4.67 to 4.78,while those for the 13 secondary indicators ranged from 4.22 to 4.89.The Kendall coefficient W was statistically significant at 0.32(χ^(2)=96.83,P<0.05).The weights assigned to the three primary indicators were:ability(0.3294),opportunity(0.3373),and motivation(0.3333).The secondary indicators with the top three highest combined weights were social influence(0.0274),knowledge(0.0273),and skills(0.0267).Conclusions The assessment tool for risky road behavior tendencies among middle school students in western China demonstrates high expert consensus,with balanced weighting of primary and secondary indicators.Expanded use of the assessment tool would provide the data support for intervention work.