中国省域生态足迹测度及时空分异

Measurement and Spatial-temporal Differentiation of Provincial Ecological Footprint in China

生态文明建设是实现经济高质量发展的重要途径。本文对1990~2020年中国31个省区市人均生态足迹进行细致测度,刻画其地区差异和演变趋势,并利用空间杜宾模型揭示经济增长的生态压力及其时空分异。研究发现:我国省域人均生态足迹自南向北呈递增态势,且存在俱乐部收敛特征,考察期内省际差异持续扩大;经济增长是生态足迹增长的重要推手,生态足迹与相邻省域经济增长之间的关系符合“倒U形”环境库兹涅茨曲线,人均GDP超过5.1万元后生态足迹与经济增长脱钩。上述发现可为准确认识我国省域生态足迹的时空特征及驱动因素提供经验支撑,进而为探寻人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化提供可行工具和对策。

The development of ecological civilization is a pivotal factor in attaining a high standard of economic progress.The study estimate per capita ecological footprint for 31 provinces in China from 1990 to 2020,describes its spatial-temporal evolution,and uses spatial Dubin model to reveal the ecological pressure of economic growth.The main findings are:the provincial ecological footprint increased gradually from south to north,and showed club convergence characteristic;economic growth is an important driver of the ecological footprint increasement,which is in line with the“Inverted U-shaped”EKC,and the ecological footprint is decoupled from economic growth after per capita GDP exceeds 51 thousand yuan.These findings can provide empirical support for understanding the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of provincial ecological footprint,and provide feasible tools and countermeasures for exploring the Chinese-style modernization with harmonious coexistence of man and nature.