青藏铁路客货运量与西藏经济发展关系研究

Research on the relationship between passenger and cargo volume of Qinghai-Xizang Railway and economic development of Xizang

青藏铁路建设对于西藏经济发展起到了积极推动作用,为西藏地区带来了更多的机遇和发展空间。本文在考虑拉林铁路开通和疫情的影响下,选用2006年至2019年西藏地区生产总值、客运量总计、货运量总计作为分析数据集,使用改进加权移动平均模型测算2020—2023年青藏铁路客货运量预测值,进而结合多元线性回归分析客货运量对西藏生产总值的影响。结果显示:青藏铁路客货运量与西藏地区生产总值存在较强的正相关性,且西藏地区生产总值呈现持续上升态势,说明青藏铁路对于西藏经济的发展起到了重要的推动作用,有效地提升了西藏经济水平和人民生活水平。此研究以期为青藏铁路的可持续发展与西藏经济进一步提升提供依据。

The construction of Qinghai-Xizang Railway has played a positive role in promoting the economic development of Xizang,bringing more opportunities and development space for the Xizangan region.In this paper,under the consideration of the opening of the Larin Railway and the impact of epidemic,the gross regional product of Xizang,the total passenger traffic and the total freight traffic from 2006 to 2019 are selected as the analytical dataset,and the predicted value of the passenger and freight traffic of the Qinghai-Xizang Railway in 2020—2024 is measured based on the improved weighted moving average model,which is then combined with the multivariate linear regression to analyze the impact of the passenger and freight traffic on the gross value of the gross regional product of Xizang.The results show that there is a strong positive correlation between the passenger and freight transportation volume of the Qinghai-Xizang Railway and the GDP of Xizang,and the GDP of Xizang shows a continuous increase,which indicates that the Qinghai-Xizang Railway plays an important role in promoting the development of the economy of Xizang,and effectively improves the economic level of Xizang and the living standard of the people.This study aims to provide a basis for the sustainable development of the Qinghai-Xizang Railway and the further improvement of the Xizangan economy.