摘要
Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic,China's Mainland had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022.In this study,we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using a conceptual SIR-based model.Our model considers the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2,particularly variolation,from non-pharmaceutical intervention(facial masking and social distance),demography,and disease mortality in China's Mainland.The increase in symptomatic proportions in China may be attributable to(1)higher sensitivity and vulnerability during winter and(2)enhanced viral inhalation due to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections(high transmissibility).These two reasons could explain China's high symptomatic proportion of COVID-19 in December 2022.Our study,therefore,can serve as a decision-support tool to enhance SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control efforts.Thus,we highlight that facemask-induced variolation could potentially reduces transmissibility rather than severity in infected individuals.However,further investigation is required to understand the variolation effect on disease severity.
基金
This study was supported by the Collaborative Research Fund(grant no.C5079-21G)of the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong,China.
