基于LEAP模型的能源活动领域非二氧化碳温室气体减排潜力研究

Research on Emission Reduction Potential of Non-Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Gases from the Energy Activity Field Based on LEAP Model

依据《山东省“十四五”应对气候变化规划》,以济南市为研究对象,结合核算能源活动领域非二氧化碳温室气体排放底数,设置三种情景(基准情景、优化情景、严格减排情景),采用LEAP模型分别预测规划年不同情景下能源活动领域甲烷和氧化亚氮的排放趋势。研究结果显示:能源活动领域排放非二氧化碳温室气体中,化石燃料燃烧排放的氧化亚氮是最大的排放源,也是最有潜力的减排源。针对能源活动领域非二氧化碳温室气体控制措施,提出常规污染物与温室气体协同管控等建议,进而助力当地社会经济绿色低碳转型。

According to the‘The 14th five-year plan for coping with climate change in Shandong province’,taking Jinan City as the research object,combined with the calculation of the base of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions in the energy activity field,three scenarios(baseline scenario,optimization scenario and strict emission reduction scenario)were set up,and the LEAP model was used to predict the emission trends of methane and nitrous oxidein the energy activity field under different scenarios in the planning year.The results showed that among the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases emitted from energy activities,nitrous oxide emitted from fossil fuel combustion was the largest source of emission and the most promising source of emission reduction.In view of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas control measures in theenergy activity field,suggestions such as coordinated control of conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases were proposed,in order to help the local social and economic transition towards a green and low-carbon future.