全球价值链重构对中国制造业竞争优势的影响

The Impact of Reconstruction of the Global Value Chain on China’s Manufacturing Competitive Advantage

中国亟须针对GVC重构的不同趋势特征部署中国制造业应对战略。鉴于此,研究以GVC重构本土化趋势影响中国制造业竞争优势的理论机制为先导,选取1995年—2020年中国制造业14个细分行业的面板数据,构建计量模型进行分组回归检验以明确各组行业所受的差异化影响。实证结果表明:GVC重构本土化趋势对中国制造业部分低技术行业或低技术生产环节影响较大,其存在被其他竞争主体挤出取代的风险;GVC重构本土化趋势使得中国制造业部分具有比较优势的中技术行业短期内无法被其他竞争主体取代;GVC重构本土化趋势使得中国制造业高技术行业短板依旧。研究依据重构后中国制造业各行业竞争优势演变特征,提出分类、分阶段推进制造业渐进式发展的应对战略,以应对行业供应链中断风险。

It is urgent for China to deploy its manufacturing industry response strategies according to the different trend characteristics of GVC reconstruction.In view of this,guided by the theoretical mechanism of GVC reconstruction localization trend affecting the competitive advantage of China’s manufacturing industry,the article has selected panel data of 14 sub-sectors of China’s manufacturing industry from 1995 to 2020,and constructed an econometric model for grouping regression test to clarify the differentiated impact on each sector.The empirical results show that:the localization trend of GVC reconstruction has a great impact on some low-tech sectors or low-tech production links of China’s manufacturing industry,and there is a risk of being crowded out and replaced by other competitors;GVC reconstruction localization trend makes some sectors of the Chinese manufacturing industry with comparative advantages not to be replaced by other competitors in the short term;GVC reconstruction localization trend makes high-tech sectors of China’s manufacturing industry still have shortcomings.Based on the evolution characteristics of competitive advantages of various sectors of China’s manufacturing industry after reconstruction,this article proposes a response strategy to promote the gradual development of manufacturing industry by classification and stages,so as to cope with the disruption risk of industrial supply chain.