基于PCA-GAM的中国空气污染与肺癌疾病负担关联分析及预测

Association analysis between air pollution and lung cancer burden and prediction of disease burden based on PCA-GAM in China

目的探索中国肺癌疾病负担与空气污染时间序列特征,进行关联性分析及肺癌疾病负担预测,为肺癌防控工作提供参考依据。方法收集1990―2019年中国肺癌发病与死亡疾病负担数据,以及1970―2015年空气污染数据。通过灰色关联度分析与广义加性模型研究空气污染与肺癌疾病负担的关联,预测2020―2022年肺癌疾病负担。结果1990―2019年,中国肺癌发病率年均复合增长率为3.48%,死亡率年均复合增长率为3.15%。细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM2.5)、可吸入颗粒物(inhalable particulate matter,PM10)、黑碳(black carbon,BC)、有机碳(organic carbon,OC)、二氧化硫(sulfur dioxide,SO_(2))、氨气(ammonia,NH3)、氮氧化物(nitrogen oxide,NOx)、一氧化碳(carbon monoxide,CO)、非甲烷挥发性有机化合物(non-methane volatile organic compounds,NMVOC)与肺癌发病率序列关联最大的序列间距分别为19年、19年、19年、19年、13年、20年、10年、19年、4年,与肺癌死亡率序列关联最大的序列间距分别为19年、19年、19年、19年、12年、12年、10年、19年、4年。非参数效应分析显示,PM2.5等污染物与肺癌疾病负担存在曲线关联。预测2020―2022年我国肺癌发病率依次为59.547/10万、59.838/10万、58.026/10万,肺癌死亡率依次为53.465/10万、54.106/10万、53.458/10万。结论空气污染致肺癌发病与死亡存在滞后效应,与肺癌疾病负担呈曲线正相关。2020―2022年中国肺癌疾病负担将呈波动变化趋势。

Objective To explore the time series characteristics of the disease burden of lung cancer and air pollution in China,and to analyze their correlation and predict the disease burden of lung cancer,and provide a reference for lung cancer prevention and control.Methods The data of disease burden such as the incidence and death of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019,and air pollution data from 1970 to 2015 were collected.Grey correlation analysis and generalized additive model were used to study the association between air pollution and lung cancer disease burden,and to predict the lung cancer disease burden from 2020 to 2022.Results From 1990 to 2019,the compound annual growth rate of the incidence of lung cancer in China was 3.48%,and the compound annual growth rate of the mortality rate was 3.15%.The lag times of PM2.5,PM10,BC,OC,SO_(2),NH3,NOx,CO,and NMVOC sequences most correlated with the incidence of lung cancer were 19 years,19 years,19 years,19 years,13 years,20 years,10 years,19 years,4 years.While the lag times of the sequences with the greatest correlation between the above air pollutants and lung cancer mortality were 19 years,19 years,19 years,19 years,12 years,12 years,10 years,19 years,and 4 years,respectively.Nonparametric effect analysis showed a curvilinear correlation between pollutants such as PM2.5 and the disease burden of lung cancer.It is predicted that the incidence rate of lung cancer in China from 2020 to 2022 will be 59.547/100000,59.838/100000 and 58.026/100000 respectively;The mortality rates of lung cancer will be 53.465/100000,54.106/100000,and 53.458/100000,respectively.Conclusions There is a hysteresis effect on the incidence and death of lung cancer caused by air pollution,and they are curvilinearly positively correlated.The disease burden of lung cancer in China has shown a fluctuated trend from 2020 to 2022.